Since the inception of the College Football Playoff in 2014, 13 different schools have earned a spot in the postseason playoff, with two programs (Alabama and Clemson) playing in the most games.
With college football fans pining for fresh faces in the CFP, Fox Sports' college football analyst Joel Klatt named No. 11 UCLA (6-0) as the school with the best chance to make the playoff for the first time.
“You know the most-likely team? UCLA,” Klatt said. “Watch out for the Bruins.”
Of the teams that have never been to the @CFBPlayoff the @UCLAFootball Bruins may just have the best chance to crash the party pic.twitter.com/mHiretAzol
— Joel Klatt (@joelklatt) October 12, 2022
Despite Klatt’s confidence in the Bruins, the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) gives UCLA only a 0.4 percent chance of making it — the 17th-best odds.
Klatt prefaced his claim with three pieces of information to explain how he landed on the Bruins over undefeated USC, Ole Miss, Oklahoma State, TCU or Tennessee.
“This is not ‘Who is the next-best team?’,” Klatt said. “This is the best chance to make the playoff. You have to look at schedules, you have to look at path and you have to understand how difficult that path is based on the matchups that will be in front of these teams.”
The undefeated Bruins cleared a major hurdle last week, beating reigning Pac-12 champ Utah, 42-32, in the Rose Bowl. Clear of the Utes, UCLA has six more opponents. They have a combined record of 19-14, with two of them ranked (Oregon and USC).
The biggest counterclaim to Klatt’s argument would seem to be USC. The FPI gives the Trojans an 18.7 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Trojans have a path similar to UCLA's. Their final six opponents have a combined 19-14 record, with two ranked opponents (Utah, UCLA).
Klatt’s final criteria—the difficulty of remaining matchups—appears to be where the popular college football personality feels more confident in the Bruins. When USC and UCLA play on Nov. 19, Klatt believes the Bruins will have an advantage over their historic rival.
“Nothing scares me on their schedule and, in particular, USC,” Klatt said. “[T]he problem with USC is it depends so much on their style… They have to play the game on their terms to win because their defense is not good enough or tough enough to just go out there and stop the run.”
The Bruins boast experience throughout their roster—upperclassmen lead in passing yards, receiving yards, rushing yards, rush attempts, receptions, total tackles and sacks—and a head coach in Chip Kelly with national championship experience. They could also finish the season with four or five wins over ranked teams.
UCLA certainly feels like it has the makings of a surprise playoff contender—even though fans in the area don't seem to care.
A trip to the playoff would make UCLA the first Pac-12 team to make the final four since Washington in 2016. It would also join Michigan as the only school to make the CFP after not making the AP preseason top 25.
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