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NHL bets: Three plays for a packed Thursday on the ice
Yes, MLB Opening Day is today and we have four Sweet 16 games tonight. All I hear there is that we are due for a big NHL night while the sports betting attention starts to drift elsewhere. Don't say I didn't warn you.
Ottawa Senators over 3.5 goals (-115 Fanatics)
Blackhawks vs. Senators, 7 p.m. ET
The Senators are rolling right now, scoring 5+ goals in three straight games. Tonight they'll play host to Chicago, a team that is allowing 4.4 goals per game on the road over the past month and a half.
To make Ottawa's scoring seem even more enticing is the power-play edge I'm seeing. The Senators' power-play scoring rate on home ice is the fifth-best mark in the league across the past month, coinciding nicely with Chicago's sixth-worst penalty killing rate on the road in that span.
I'm not too worried about Ottawa playing on a back-to-back. Just last week, they scored five goals in New Jersey, came back home the next night, and put up another five goals against Edmonton. Now they get the same situation here tonight against the Blackhawks after winning 6-2 in Buffalo yesterday.
Nathan MacKinnon over 4.5 SOG (+100 DraftKings)
Rangers vs. Avalanche, 9 p.m. ET
I'm a bit surprised this is the price on MacKinnon, my inference is that books are expecting a tighter matchup between two of the NHL's best. Sure, scoring may be at a premium, but shots are looking strong to me from the Colorado end.
The Avalanche are averaging 36.0 shots per game on home ice across the last 45 days, nearly the same number the Rangers are giving up on the road in that stretch. New York just allowed 48 shots to the Flyers on Tuesday, and they've let up the 11th-most shots per game to opposing centers.
Enter MacKinnon, who is averaging 6.4 shots per game at home over his past 10 games, hitting this number eight times. He's tallying nearly 10 attempts on average on home ice, volume I can get behind.
MacKinnon also has 5+ SOG in four straight and five of his last six against New York. One more kicker is that the entire NHL betting universe was on MacKinnon Tuesday and he let us down. If I've learned one thing from betting NHL props for three years, you need to be able to trust in the bounce-back.
Andre Burakovsky over 2.5 SOG (+120 DK)
Ducks vs. Kraken, 10 p.m. ET
I hopped on the Andre Burakovsky train on Tuesday to success, with him cashing his shots prop at +126. Now we get him at another great price and oh look at that, he's still at home and hosting the Anaheim Ducks.
I think Burakovsky may be sliding a bit under the radar here. The third line winger for the Kraken now has 3+ shots in six straight at home, and he's piled up 30 attempts in his past four. That's volume and a hit-rate I'll gladly continue to follow, especially against an Anaheim team that is allowing nearly 35 shots per game on the road over the past month and a half.
I don't hate Burakovsky for a goal either, I may give him a go there.
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