Royals' skid: Just a blip or a sign of things to come?

The Kansas City Royals were one of the feel-good stories of the early 2024 baseball season. They started off 12-6, including a seven-win homestand. After losing four of their last five, the Royals seem to be regressing back toward preseason expectations of mediocrity. 

Kansas City still sits at 13-10 and are tied for second in the AL Central, so this little downturn isn't anything, in and of itself, to be worried about. Probably the most worrisome aspect for the Royals is their lack of depth on offense. 

The Royals have four of their regulars hitting under .200 - Maikel Garcia (.178), Kyle Isbel (.197), Hunter Renfroe (.159) and Adam Frazier (.174). While Vinnie Pasquantino has heated up with an 11-game hitting streak after a frigid start, and Salvador Perez has been consistently hot all season, players like Bobby Witt Jr. and Nelson Velazquez have cooled considerably from hot starts. 

Uncharacteristically, the Royals have been knocking out home runs at a pretty good clip. Currently, they have hit 28, tied for third in the AL. They're fourth in the AL in runs scored, and despite so many players hitting under .200, they are in the middle of the AL pack in batting average, ranked seventh at .237.

Their starting rotation, which was so good early, still is above average, ranked fifth in ERA at 3.26. They are tied with the Mariners with 12 quality starts. The pitching isn't even relying that much on luck, as they have a .287 BABIP, the 6th highest mark in the AL. 

To top it all off, the defense has been good too. According to FanGraphs, the Royals are third in the AL in Defensive Runs Saved with 15.

One of the caveats with the Royals hot start was they went 6-1 against the hapless White Sox, who own the league's worst record (3-19). Be careful when playing the schedule game, though, because teams who want to compete for divisional championships are supposed to beat the weaker teams. What is more concerning is their lack of wins against tougher teams. So far, they are 2-5 against the Orioles and Blue Jays, tough AL East opponents. 

While you would like to see them even that record out a bit against good teams, they've only lost one of those games by more than two runs. In fact, of their 10 losses, six have been by two runs or less. It's not like they are getting blown away on a regular basis, and they've only been shutout once.

The next two weeks or so should establish Kansas City as a contender or a pretender. They have six upcoming games with the Blue Jays, three with the Tigers, three with the Rangers and three with the Brewers. If they can survive that stretch with at least six wins, they'll be at .500 and will have proved they can hang tight with some of the best teams in the majors. 

Until proven otherwise, this cold streak should be considering a normal little blip that happens to all teams rather than a harbinger of upcoming doom. The Royals have a chance to show everyone if they are for real or not over the next two weeks. Let's wait and see until then before declaring them just a good early-season story.