Cubs ace about to take huge step in rehab from hamstring strain

The Cubs have been without left-hander Justin Steele since he was pulled from his Opening Day start against the Rangers in the fifth inning due to a hamstring strain. It appears that the club’s time without their staff ace may be nearing an end, however, as Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun Times relayed Saturday afternoon that (per manager Craig Counsell) Steele is set to join the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Iowa for a rehab assignment in the coming days. Counsell added that Wednesday is the likely target for Steele’s rehab appearance, with MLB.com’s injury tracker noting that the southpaw threw 47 pitches in an extended spring training game Friday.

Steele, 28, has surprised in recent years by emerging as a front-of-the-rotation caliber arm in Chicago. The lefty was selected by the Cubs in the fifth round of the 2014 draft but did not make his big league debut until 2021, when he pitched to a mediocre 4.26 ERA and 5.52 FIP in 57 innings of work. When Steele returned to the club’s rotation the following year, however, it was clear he had taken his game to the next level: in 55 starts since the start of the 2022 campaign, Steele has pitched to an excellent 3.09 ERA (140 ERA+) with an even better 3.06 FIP.

While Steele’s 24.6% strikeout rate during a 2023 campaign that saw him make his first All-Star appearance and finish fifth in NL Cy Young award voting was right around league average, his strong 5.0% walk rate and 50.3% groundball rate were both excellent according to Statcast, ranking in the 93rd and 83rd percentiles respectively. Steele will bring that well-rounded profile back to a Cubs rotation that has dealt with plenty of injuries to this point in the 2024 campaign. In addition to Steele, the Cubs have spent time this season without veteran right-handers Jameson Taillon and Kyle Hendricks. While the former has performed well in two starts since returning from the shelf, the latter struggled badly even when healthy enough to take the mound with a 12.00 ERA in four starts.

Fortunately for the Cubs, a quartet of unproven arms have handled things admirably in the absence of more established arms. Leading the charge has been 30-year-old lefty Shota Imanaga, who signed a four-year, $53M contract with the Cubs over the winter after being posted by the Yokohama BayStars of Japan’s NPB. Imanaga has been sensational in the early going of his first MLB season, with a 0.98 ERA that leads all qualified MLB starters backed up by a strong 2.36 FIP in 27 2/3 innings of work.

Sophomore swingman Javier Assad has been joined by rookies Jordan Wicks and Ben Brown to fill out the rest of the club’s rotation and the trio has performed admirably to this point with a combined 2.82 ERA in 60 2/3 innings of work in 12 starts. The Cubs are surely looking forward to Steele’s return even in spite of those strong performances, of course. With the lefty seemingly on track for a return in early May, it appears the most likely course of action for Chicago is to move Brown into a full-time bullpen role when the club’s ace is ready to go.

Brown’s debut season in the majors has gotten off to a solid start as he’s swung between the Chicago rotation and bullpen. After allowing six runs in just 1 2/3 relief innings against the Rangers during his MLB debut, Brown has settled in and dazzled with a 1.02 ERA, 1.88 FIP, and 27.0% strikeout rate in 17 2/3 innings of work across five appearances (two starts). Brown’s move to a full-time bullpen role would surely help a Cubs bullpen that recently lost long-relief arm Drew Smyly to the injured list and saw closer Adbert Alzolay removed from the closer role last week after converting just three saves in seven opportunities so far this year.