Mets to promote pitching prospect with huge strikeout potential

Scott, 25 in June, was a fifth-round selection of the Mets in 2021 but he has raised his stock dramatically since then. In 2022, he tossed 58 2/3 innings between Single-A and High-A with a fairly pedestrian 4.45 ERA, but stronger underlying metrics. He struck out 29.5% of batters faced while walking 8.4%. If not for a .381 batting average on balls in play and 68.1% strand rate, he would have fared much better, which is why his FIP was 2.77 that year.

Last year, he eventually rose as high as Double-A, throwing 87 2/3 frames for the year with a 2.57 ERA. He struck out 31.9% of batters while limiting his walks to a tiny 3.6% rate. He came into 2024 ranked as the No. 98 prospect in baseball, according to FanGraphs. At ESPN, McDaniel had Scott at No. 99. Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin of FanGraphs highlighted that he converted his changeup into a splitter, adding a strong third option to what had previously been mostly a sinker/slider combo.

He didn’t crack the season-opening lists at either MLB Pipeline or Baseball America, but has vaulted himself up to No. 62 on BA’s most recent update. That huge jump is a reflection of the fact that Scott has been dominating this year, apart from some homer troubles. Through five Triple-A starts here in 2024, he has fanned 38.3% of opponents while limiting his walks to a 6.4% rate. But thanks to seven fly balls clearing the fences, he has a 3.20 ERA.

In addition to pushing him up prospect lists, that strong performance will get him to the majors. The Mets currently have a rotation of Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, Adrian Houser and Jose Butto. The only optionable guy in that group is Butto, but he has been pitching well, with a 2.57 ERA on the year. Anthony DiComo of MLB.com speculates that Scott’s promotion might be related to the Mets playing 26 games in 27 days, so perhaps Scott’s promotion will just be a spot start to give the others a breather.

The length of Scott’s stay might also depend on other factors. Each of Kodai Senga, Tylor Megill and David Peterson are on the injured list and their respective returns will impact how the rotation is configured as they season rolls along. Senga and Peterson on on the 60-day IL and can’t return until late May but Megill recently began a rehab assignment and could therefore be an option in a few weeks. Scott’s performance in his big league debut will naturally impact the decisions as well.

Regardless of how long Scott spends in the bigs for the rest of the season, he won’t be able to earn a full year of service time since the campaign is already more than a month old. The new CBA allows top prospects to earn a full year even if called up late if they finish in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting, but that won’t apply to Scott. To be eligible for that benefit, a player has to start the year on two of three top 100 lists at ESPN, BA and MLB Pipeline, but Scott was only on one. That means the Mets can control him through the 2023 season, even if he sticks in the big leagues from here on out.