Projecting Thomas Harley’s Next Contract with the Dallas Stars

A restricted free agent (RFA), Harley and the Stars will have a lot of time to negotiate what his deal should be. If necessary, they can wait until Dec. 1, 2024, to do so. Considering how well he played, he could be due for quite the sum of money – something a Cup contender like Dallas does not have a lot of. Based on his play, what might his next contract look like?

Harley Puts Himself on the Map

On a pairing with Miro Heiskanen, Harley worked his magic in the regular season. Of the 70 defensemen who averaged at least 18 minutes of ice time at even strength, he was sixth in expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60) at 2.34. He was one of the best defensemen in the entire NHL at limiting the chances of his opposition. Though much of his success could have to do with the fact that Heiskanen was playing at a Norris Trophy level, Harley himself was no slouch – the benefit was mutual.

Harley’s on-ice offense was elite, too. He finished eighth in the NHL in expected goals percentage (xGF%) among the same group of defensemen, putting him in the 91st and 88th percentiles for xGA/60 and xGF% among some of the most reliable defenders in the league.

Even Harley’s more basic numbers ranked in the upper tier of the NHL. With a plus-28 rating, he was tied for eighth among the league’s 314 defensemen. He was also tied for eighth place among defensemen in goals (15), tied for 34th in assists (32), and tied for 22nd in points (47). In essentially every way possible, Harley was elite.

Stars’ Salary Cap Situation Could Be Dicey

The Stars should probably prioritize getting their young defenseman locked up for the maximum contract length of eight seasons, but the issue for them is that they don’t exactly have a ton of cap space. Being a Stanley Cup contender and all, jeopardizing salary freedom is a big risk.

Based on the Stars’ current NHL roster, they will have 14 of 23 possible players under contract in 2024-25 and just over $15 million to use on the rest of the team. Notable RFAs for them include Harley, Sam Steel, Ty Dellandrea, and Nils Lundkvist, so Dallas could be in a cap crunch if they give their young defenseman a massive extension.

If 39-year-old right winger Joe Pavelski chooses to retire in the offseason, the Stars might also want a first-line replacement for the veteran forward. A couple of young right-handed shooters such as Wyatt Johnston or Logan Stankoven could serve as an internal replacement, but it would undoubtedly leave Dallas weaker in 2024-25 than they stand today. They might have trouble finding a high-end substitute for Pavelski if Harley gets term.

Another top-six forward with an expiring deal is Matt Duchene, and losing him wouldn’t be ideal, either. Dallas simply won’t have the space for both him and Harley as it stands.

Ultimately, Harley and the Stars will have two options: sign a bridge deal, or get a long-term contract out of the way as quickly as possible. One option would give Dallas some wiggle room in the short term, while the other could prolong their Cup window if the value is good enough.

Predicting Harley’s Contract

The Stars are a very good organization, if not the best in the entire NHL. General manager (GM) Jim Nill is arguably the best in the sport, so there should be a great level of trust in him to make the right decision – this, objectively, seems to be allowing Harley to cash in on his stellar campaign.

Heiskanen signed an eight-year contract worth an average annual value (AAV) of $8.45 million at 22, which is similar to Harley’s situation. While he isn’t on the same level as Heiskanen, the market has certainly shifted in the last three calendar years. At the same time, having one elite season under his belt might limit how much Harley can demand.

Getting to an exact number, an eight-year, $7.5 million AAV deal seems to be fair to both Harley and the Stars. While it’s a little high based on some projections, there’s no denying how important he is to Dallas. They are a much better team with him on the first pairing than with someone such as Ryan Suter being there. This season could just be the start of a great career for Harley – anticipate him being paid like it.