3 Bottom-Six Free Agent Targets for the Devils

Carrier, though he only played 39 games this season due to some injury woes, was a force to be reckoned with on the ice. He had an expected goal share (xGF%) of 60.23%, handily leading the Golden Knights in that regard. He also had the highest expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) of any Vegas player with at least 10 games played with 3.13 while allowing the second-fewest expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60), meaning that Vegas was generating the most xG on offense and allowing the second-fewest xG on defense with Carrier on the ice versus any other player on their team. Historically speaking, his statistics are similarly strong. He’s never posted an xGF% below 50% in a single season since entering the NHL in 2016, showing his continued aptitude over the years.

Carrier would also add some much-needed physicality and size to the lineup. At 6-foot-2, 220 pounds, he is practically immovable off the puck once gaining possession. He’s an expert forechecker, throwing his weight around at will in the offensive zone to create opportunities for himself and his teammates. With 11.03 hits per 60 minutes, he laid the body with the third-most frequency among Vegas forwards with 10-plus games played, trailing only Keegan Kolesar and Paul Cotter. He’s got a surprising amount of speed in his game, giving him the tools to excel at both a cycle- and rush-style offense.

In terms of his next contract, it’s hard for me to imagine a scenario in which he gets paid much more than his current $1.4 million cap hit. Depth, character players like Carrier rarely get paid what they’re analytically worth because they find the scoresheet so little, so I would anticipate his next contract coming in at around $1.75 million for two or three years. If I were Fitzgerald, I would probably offer him up to $2 million — he’d be that good of an addition to the bottom six.

Yakov Trenin

Another big-bodied winger to keep tabs on in the Devils’ bottom-six unrestricted free agent (UFA) pursuit is now-Colorado Avalanche forward Yakov Trenin. He was traded to the Avalanche from the Nashville Predators this past trade deadline and has since established himself as an integral part of Colorado’s heavy, defense-first fourth line. Much like Carrier, Trenin isn’t necessarily one to find the scoresheet very often, but he has eclipsed the 10-goal mark in three consecutive seasons and has scored as many as 17 in a season.

Trenin’s statistical profile doesn’t hold quite as well as Carrier’s, but he would still be a strong defensive player for anyone’s bottom-six. Among the 210 forwards in the NHL who played at least 900 minutes at 5v5, he ranked 52nd in xGA/60. Among the 118 forwards who played at least 100 minutes on the penalty kill this year, he ranked 14th in the same metric. He’s not going to turn the tides on both sides of the puck, but for a sure-fire, sturdy-on-defense winger for the fourth line, it’s hard to be much better than Trenin.

Another way Trenin’s game is similar to that of Carrier — who, once again, is arguably the league’s best fourth-liner — is in physicality. He has averaged over 10 hits per 60 minutes throughout his career, using physicality to both create separation in the offensive zone and seal off attacking rushers on defense. Given his size, strength, and scoring touch, he’s certainly worth a look for a fourth-line upgrade this summer.

Trenin flies more under the radar than other high-quality fourth-liners, and as such his contract may be more affordable, especially considering that his current $1.7 million average annual value (AAV) contract came after a career-year — his decreased goal-scoring and point production likely means that his contract comes in lower than what his previous one was worth. I could see him garnering a two-to-three-year deal in the $1.5 million AAV range.

Warren Foegele

Admittedly more of a middle-sixer than a bottom-sixer, Warren Fogele entered the NHL as a draftee of the Carolina Hurricanes before moving to the Edmonton Oilers in a trade that sent Ethan Bear to Carolina. He’s established himself quite nicely in orange and blue, having posted career-highs in goals (20) and points (41) in 82 games this regular season. His speed is undoubtedly his best asset, being able to dance around defenders at will using his acceleration and excellent edgework.

In a middle-six role with the Oilers this season, Foegele posted an astounding xGF% of 58.04%, good for seventh on the team among regulars. His xGF/60 of 3.53 also sits at seventh on the team, and when narrowing those statistics down to only including forwards, he is fifth in both behind only Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Leon Draisaitl. He has yet to go a season with an xGF% of under 51.75%. He’s admittedly prone to the occasional mental blunder, but the vast majority of the time he is excellent at using his speed and soft hands to create opportunities for himself and his teammates.

I would imagine Foegele’s next contract comes in quite a bit steeper in value than his $2.75 million AAV contract now, and it’s more likely than not that he remains an Oiler past this season, but in the event that he decides to part ways with Edmonton, I would consider a three or four-year deal around the $4 million mark to be a fair contract for the 28-year-old speedster. He could realistically slot in alongside Erik Haula and Ondrej Palat on the third line or move up to play alongside one of Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier without any problems.

Devils’ Bottom-Six Needs the Most Help

More than anything else besides a new coach and goaltender, the Devils’ bottom-six is in need of the most help. The top-six is mostly fine, with maybe one slot available for a free agent or trade acquisition, and the defense, albeit young, is in relatively good shape barring good health and a defensive bounce-back from Jonas Siegenthaler. The bottom six, though, desperately needs some assistance, at least on the wings. I don’t see anyone in the pipeline who is ready to make the jump full-time outside of Brian Halonen, and even then, there are much better options in free agency.