Blue Jackets Get Another Chance to Overcome Bad Lottery Luck

To say the Blue Jackets have had awful luck at the Draft Lottery would be a major understatement. Not once in their history have they won the right to pick first. The only time the Blue Jackets ever held the number-one pick was when they completed a trade in 2002 to acquire that pick. They selected Rick Nash.

In fact, the Blue Jackets have only ever gone up in the draft order as a result of a lottery draw once. That happened in 2016 when there were three separate draws. The Blue Jackets won the third draw which allowed them to pick third. They took Pierre-Luc Dubois.

We’ll get you ready for what to expect on Tuesday night. Despite the poor results from the past, those past draws do not have any bearing on what will happen now. For those that are relatively new here, let’s take a quick trip down memory lane with how the Draft Lottery panned out from a Blue Jackets’ perspective at different points.

A Quick History Lesson

2023: The Blue Jackets held the second best odds to win the first-overall selection. They didn’t win either of the two draws and dropped from second to third. They were able to draft Adam Fantilli.

2022: The Blue Jackets could not win the first pick due to being able to jump up 10 places max. They had the 12th best chance to make that jump. They didn’t. They were able to draft Denton Mateychuk at 12th. This was the same year they held the sixth pick from the Blackhawks. That pick became David Jiricek.

2021: The Blue Jackets held the fifth best odds. They didn’t win either draw. The Canadiens won the lottery and selected Juraj Slafkovsky. The Seattle Kraken won the second draw and took Matty Beniers. The Blue Jackets took Kent Johnson at fifth.

2016: As mentioned, the Blue Jackets did win the third drawing. They had the fourth-best odds for the first pick going in. This means the Blue Jackets have not only never won a first drawing, they’ve never won a second drawing either.

2015: The Edmonton Oilers went from third to first and drafted Connor McDavid. The Blue Jackets went on a run at the end of the previous season that saw them go up the standings. However, that decreased their lottery odds. They were able to draft Zach Werenski.

2012: The Blue Jackets held the best chance to win the lottery only to see the Oilers jump them. After the Oilers took Nail Yakopov, the Blue Jackets took Ryan Murray.

Setting up Tuesday Night

The Blue Jackets have the fourth-best odds of landing the top pick at the 2024 NHL Draft at 9.5%. This means they can pick anywhere from first through sixth. They own a 9.5% chance of first or second. Third is not likely at less than 1%. There is a unique scenario in play in which the Blue Jackets could go up one spot from fourth to third.

The odds the Blue Jackets stay at fourth are 15.4%. They have a 44.6% chance to drop to fifth and a 20.8% chance to drop to sixth. That would mean two teams below them won a draw should they fall to sixth.

One way to think about this is that the Blue Jackets have about the same chance to win a draw as they do falling two spots. The most likely outcome is that they fall one spot to fifth.

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How does the Draft Lottery work? Each team will be assigned a unique four-digit combination that comprise of the numbers 1-14. In each combination, there are no repeating digits. The order in which the numbers are drawn also does not matter. This means that there are 1,001 possible four-digit combinations that can be drawn. One combination is deemed a redraw. The other 1,000 are randomly distributed to the eligible teams in line with their percentage chances of winning.

Commissioner Gary Bettman will lead the draw behind closed doors a few hours before the television event. There will be witnesses from the media on hand to watch the draw as it happens. A third-party company will determine which team has that particular combination drawn for each of the two draws. The first draw is for the first pick and the second draw is for the second pick.

The Blue Jackets like everyone else will learn the results on the Draft Lottery show which will be aired by ESPN on Tuesday night.

Importance of a Lottery Win

For the Blue Jackets, they need something to finally go right. The last couple of seasons have been nothing short of a disaster for multiple reasons. Coaches and management have been shown the door. The hockey has been very hard to watch at times. For once, this team needs a lucky bounce to go their way to land a top talent.

This season, the consensus top pick is Macklin Celebrini. He became the youngest player to ever win the Hobey Baker Award as a freshman at Boston University. He will also play at the upcoming World Championships for Team Canada alongside Fantilli and Connor Bedard.

What would a lottery win mean? It would mean a massive, much-needed step in the right direction for a team that has been looking for anything to build off of. It would finally put to rest the demons of past lotteries while adding a core piece down the middle of the ice. Suddenly, a Fantilli, Celebrini, Cole Sillinger trio at center looks pretty good.

A lottery win could potentially help the Blue Jackets get back to playoff contention sooner. They’ll have an established core to build around for years to come.

Even if They Don’t Win

There is still a bright side to not winning the lottery or even dropping a spot or two should it happen. The Blue Jackets cannot pick worst than sixth. Why is that important? That’s because anyone holding a pick in the top-15 will get an impact player.

Get used to hearing names like Ivan Demidov, Artyom Levshunov, Cole Eiserman, Cayden Lindstrom, Sam Dickinson, Zayne Parekh, Zeev Buium and Berkly Catton. With eight names listed here not counting Celebrini, the Blue Jackets will likely land one of these top talents.

The Blue Jackets will make the most of holding a top pick at the 2024 NHL Draft. They just hope that this is finally the year for them to win the lottery and jump up to first. As John Davidson said on Saturday, “We will be saying prayers” in order to get a good result. Will the lottery balls finally bounce the Blue Jackets way? We’ll know on Tuesday night.