Canadiens’ Offseason Focus Should be on Trades Not UFAs

With all of the high-ranking defenders, and even a chance the Canadiens can move up into the top three of the draft after the May 7 Draft Lottery, it means that one of Ivan Demidov, Cayden Lindstrom, Cole Eiserman, or Tij Iginla will likely be available. With the prospect pool already filled with defensemen and now even goaltenders, this draft should provide fans some entertainment as management will add offense to their pool.

Canadiens Need to Avoid Targeting UFAs

Beyond the usual schadenfreude Canadiens fans display at the cap structure and team construction issues the Toronto Maple Leafs are facing because they have been unable to win when it matters, they do provide the Canadiens a basis to approach UFAs with caution. The addition of John Tavares at a time when they already had Auston Matthews and Nazem Kadri turned out to handcuff the team financially over the long term. Hughes will need to avoid that trap but also, deal with the age gap between the new addition and the current core. There needs to be a crossover between when any new addition is still productive and the core is ready to peak. In signing a player who is already 30 years old, there are significant concerns that player would have passed their best-before date by the time the team is truly ready to compete (Not to mention the salary cap space taken up by such a UFA.)

Jonathan Marchessault is coming off of his best statistical season of his career, having scored 42 goals and 69 points, and this is on the heels of him winning the Conn Smythe Trophy as MVP for the 2023 Playoffs where he led his Vegas Golden Knights to their first Stanley Cup victory. His veteran presence and championship experience would be an excellent addition and on paper, is ideal to help the young core and he has been connected to the Canadiens. All that being said, being that he is already 33 years old — and will likely be looking for a significant pay raise with term — he isn’t an ideal fit for Montreal based on the timing of his availability and where they are in the rebuild.

Sam Reinhart would be a good fit in any sense. He is in his prime at 28 years of age and could have five or six high-quality seasons left in the tank. He is also coming off of a career high 52-goal season. He would be an ideal addition in that sense, but the odds of him being available on the open market are very low while his salary demands would be very high, possibly eight figures. No one, especially an NHL GM, should place the success of their rebuild plan on the hope that a top UFA would be available, and would sign with his club.

Canadiens Should Target RFAs Via Trade

This is why making a trade works better for Montreal. With the Canadiens holding several excellent trade assets, such as picks, prospects and even established NHL players,— many of which are top-four capable defenders — Hughes has been able to build up enough trade capital to make a deal for a high-quality RFA possible. Going this route would get a player that fits the core, does so for a longer period, and could be signed to a long-term deal for slightly less than what a UFA would demand on the open market. Knowing Montreal’s needs and assets, there are a few who could be available to Hughes leading up to the NHL draft.

Martin Necas

The Carolina Hurricanes are primed to make a deal. While they seemingly have lots of cap space next season but with Seth Jarvis, Teuvo Teravainen and half of their blue line in need of contracts, their approximately $27.3 million in cap space will be eaten up quickly. While ideally, they would retain everyone, the financial reality is that there is likely to be some turnover.

Martin Necas would be an ideal target for Hughes. He has the size (6-foot-2,190-pounds), he is a proven point producer who already has a 28 goal and 71-point season under his belt. Also helpful would be his playoff experience. His style of play fits the Canadiens’ model — he’s a good skater who can make plays and do so quickly. While listed as a center, he has difficulties winning faceoffs, so he tends to play on the wing, which is what Montreal needs. The price to acquire someone like Necas is high. It would take multiple first-round picks and even some top-end prospects or a high-quality NHL veteran like Mike Matheson to wrestle him away from Carolina.

Peyton Krebs

Like Carolina, the Buffalo Sabres have significant cap space to maneuver in, $23.2 million. But with a need to add some veteran help to help the team compete for their first playoff appearance in over a decade, and the need to sign/pay 11 players to fill the lineup, that space will be used up quickly. The 23-year-old Krebs is not going to be due a big pay raise due to his four goals and 17 points in 80 games played. Despite having good possession stats such as a 51.9% Corsi For rating, he only averaged just over 12 minutes of ice time per game. This does point him being underused. In Buffalo, he’s slid to a bottom six role, with significant time spent playing special teams on the top penalty killing unit and the second power-play unit. However, without being given enough opportunity to demonstrate his offensive skills with top-six talent, his numbers have taken a hit. This is similar to the situation Alex Newhook found himself in before the Canadiens acquired him.

Krebs has many of the qualities head coach Martin St Louis likes. He plays with speed, not only because he is a fast skater with good mobility, but because he can process the game quickly. Krebs is also a good forechecker who pressures defenses and retrieves pucks. He has good playmaking vision, can play in heavy traffic and has proven he can play an up-tempo style. While they are a divisional rival, the two teams could make a deal as Buffalo is in search of veteran NHL assets, but also NHL ready assets, and Montreal has both.

Yegor Chinakhov

When the Columbus Blue Jackets selected Yegor Chinakov in the first round of the 2020 draft, it was an “out of left-field” choice as very few, if anyone, had him on their radar to be selected in that range. The 6-foot-1, 204-pound winger has steadily improved as he set career highs in goals (16) and points (29) in his third NHL season on a very weak Blue Jackets squad.

With the Blue Jackets in transition due to a change in management and a highly-disappointing season, there is an opening to add the speedy sharpshooter. The former Kontinental Hockey League Rookie of the Year has the speed and size Montreal covets, he also has a very heavy shot with a quick release reminiscent of Max Pacioretty’s. Chinakhov is capable of playing in the high-traffic areas and hold up to the physical punishment an is a very disciplined player. In 53 games this season, Chinakhov has only been assessed three minor penalties. Looking ahead to a playoff series, a player with offensive skill who takes few or no penalties would be a major asset. For the Canadiens, who were the fifth most penalized team in the NHL and had the ninth-worst PK at only 76.5%, a productive, disciplined forward would be more than welcomed.

Montreal is in a pivotal time in their rebuild. It is at the stage where the team needs to start showing improvements in the standings, not only individually. By using the stockpile of assets available to him, Hughes can target young players that fit the core group’s playing style, and do so at a more reasonable cap hit than going shopping for UFAs on the open market. While there will be less of an impact, statistically, from an RFA who is still not into their prime years, the upside is that the RFA acquired would grow into their role and into the group and do so for a longer period of time and for a more reasonable salary. That would leave Hughes more room to maneuver to add in other areas of need.