Avalanche vs. Stars: 2024 NHL Playoff Preview

The two heavyweights represented the Western Conference in the 2020 (Stars) and 2022 (Avalanche) Stanley Cup Final, representing two of the past three championship series. It’s not out of line to suggest that whichever group emerges from this series can go on to do so again in these playoffs, with the Vancouver Canucks and the Edmonton Oilers in the other series looking less complete than their counterparts.

With that, let’s dive into the three keys for the Avalanche in overcoming the Stars and advancing to the third round for the second time in three seasons.

Key #1: Neutralize the Stars’ Forward Depth

Though the Golden Knights kept the Stars to a meagre 2.33 goals per game in the first round (12th out of 16 qualified teams), their offense is always a threat to activate. They scored an average of 3.59 goals per game during the regular season (third in the NHL) and had eight players score at least 20 goals, and six at least 25 times.

The Stars have done an excellent job at bridging their competitive timelines, with the key forwards from the 2020 Stanley Cup run in Joe Pavelski (age 39), Jamie Benn (age 34), and Tyler Seguin (age 32) now being supplanted by a crop of matured prospects.

Roope Hintz (27) was the only one of the prime-age core to feature in the 2020 Playoffs, and he’s since been joined by Jason Robertson (24), Matt Duchene, Mason Marchment, and a pair of stars-in-the-making in Wyatt Johnston (20) and Logan Stankoven (21).

It’s a testament to the Stars’ scouting department that they’ve been able to execute a rapid retool since losing in the 2020 Stanley Cup Final, and it could lead to a championship as soon as this season.

It was the play of Johnston that swung a very tight first-round affair, with the 20-year-old leading the series in goals (four) and shots (27) while tying for the lead in points (seven). It shouldn’t come as a surprise given that he also led the Stars with 32 goals during the regular season, but he’s announced himself to the hockey world with his performance against the defending Stanley Cup champions.

Though the Jets were not without their offensive weapons, the Stars are a different animal to contain. Their forward group is deeper and more defensively oriented, meaning that the Avalanche must be purposeful with their movement and passing.

The Avalanche have an advantage in terms of elite talent and will hope that their game-breakers can single-handedly decide what is sure to be a more tightly contested series compared to the first round. A reinforced (and healthier) supporting cast tore the Jets’ defensive structure to shreds and will be just as much of a test for the Stars in this series.

Nathan MacKinnon established a new franchise record with 140 points during the regular season and tallied nine points in five games against the Jets. Apart from their superstar center, the Avalanche had seven other players score at least two goals in the first round, with Valeri Nichushkin (seven goals in five games) and the underrated Artturi Lehkonen (five in five) in particular wreaking havoc around the Jets’ crease.

Other than Mikko Rantanen (nine points in five games) fully recovering from a concussion sustained prior to the playoffs, the play of Casey Mittelstadt (six points in five games) could be the key to matching Dallas’ depth. He’s meshed well with the Avalanche’s top-six, and will have to maintain his strong outings to date with the continued absence of injured winger Jonathan Drouin.

Both teams will trot out an enviable parade of offensive stars up front over the course of the series. The Stars will hope that rolling four dependable lines can tilt the ice against the Avalanche’s elite talent. The outcome of this particular battle could be a deciding factor in who advances to the third round.

Key #2: Put Pressure on the Stars’ Top Puck Carriers

Despite arguably boasting the deepest forward group in the league, the Stars generate a great deal of their five-on-five offense from the defensive zone, relying on a collection of dynamic puck-moving defensemen to carry the puck from zone to zone.

Many will be familiar with 24-year-old rearguard Miro Heiskanen, who scored 26 points in 27 playoff games as the Stars came within two wins of capturing the second Stanley Cup in franchise history. He’s accumulated 73 career playoff games before the age of 25, and is one of the few defensemen around the league who can give the Avalanche’s Cale Makar a run for his money when it comes to consideration for the Norris Trophy.

What has elevated the Stars’ floor in terms of the blue line is the ascension of 22-year-old Thomas Harley, who broke out with 47 points in 79 games this season. He’s been limited to a single point in the 2024 Playoffs, but his aggressive bursts up ice have given the Stars another play-making presence on the back end.

Those two young stars headline a solid defensive group rounded out by Esa Lindell and decorated veterans in Ryan Suter and Chris Tanev, the latter of which came over in a trade with the Calgary Flames at the trade deadline.

What’s been notable is that head coach Peter DeBoer has essentially utilized a five-man rotation on the blue line with four defenders averaging 23 minutes or more. Nils Lundkvist has featured in every game of the postseason so far, but averaged under five minutes per game during the first round and played in just over three minutes in Game 7 against the Golden Knights. He’s been stapled to the bench and represents a clear target for the Avalanche when they have last change at home.

In comparison, Colorado had Makar and Devon Toews exceed 23 minutes per game in Round 1, and had five defensemen average more than 17 minutes per game. The Avalanche clearly have their thoroughbreds, but have spread out even-strength and special teams duty more evenly.

Let’s return to the Stars’ breakout strategy. According to data tracked by AllThreeZones, they ranked first in the NHL in terms of defensive zone retrievals attempted and zone exits completed per-60-minutes, also ranking above-average in terms of exits completed with possession. They leaned heavily on their defensemen to either carry or pass the puck out, a strategy which proved to be a success due to their skating and puck-handling abilities.

Harley and Heiskanen were the leaders in this regard, with Harley employing a much riskier style than the calculating Heiskanen. Of the Stars’ defenders, only Suter ranked below-average in terms of retrievals which translated into exits with possession. Lindell was more no-nonsense than his teammates, ranking second in the league in clears per-60, but well below-average in exits with possession.

To remedy this imbalance, general manager Jim Nill acquired the veteran Tanev at the deadline. Despite being on the back end of his career, Tanev has continued to be a very effective puck-mover. Despite being saddled with the heaviest transition workload in the league with the Flames, the 34-year-old graded out well above-average in generating controlled zone exits. His composure and patience give the Stars three very capable puck-moving defenders and will make it much more difficult for the Avalanche to disrupt their breakout attempts.

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They must do what they can to funnel dump-ins away from Heiskanen and Tanev and towards one of the other two defensemen, or three if Lundkvist actually plays. Harley is a riverboat gambler, and could be forced into high-danger turnovers if attacked with multiple forecheckers, but he possesses the ability to evade aggressive schemes.

If the Avalanche can stifle the Stars’ breakouts, they may be able to extend possessions in the offensive zone. Tanev and Suter could be worn down after another series in which they have to bear the brunt of a shorter defensive rotation. Let’s see how this battle plays out.

Key #3: Maintain Power Play Production

We’ve focused a lot on the Stars to this point, so let’s move over to something the Avalanche have greater control over: the power play. The Avalanche devoured the Jets penalty kill in Round 1, capitalizing on a shorthanded unit which ranked in the bottom-half of the league by efficiency during the regular season. They scored on six of 16 total opportunities and ranked second in the first round by overall efficiency (37.5%), maintaining their top-10 conversion from the regular season.

The Stars’ penalty kill ranked eighth (82%) in the regular season, but struggled to repel the Golden Knights’ power play in Round 1, only killing off eight of Vegas’ 11 chances on the power play.

Let’s compare the Avalanche’s power play and the Stars’ penalty kill units in terms of the rates at which they generated and conceded goals (GF/GA) shots (SF/SA), expected goals (xGF/xGA), scoring chances (SCF/A), and high-danger chances (HDCF/A) during the regular season.

Comparing the opposing special teams units by NHL rank during the regular season, courtesy of Natural Stat Trick

Despite the Stars’ subpar penalty-killing in Round 1, they graded out as one of the NHL’s top units during the regular season as a result of ranking in the top 10 or top five in a number of scoring chance suppression categories.

Goaltending can mask a poorly-structured penalty kill or sabotage the most expertly-constructed scheme, but the Stars are fortunate to have the best of both worlds. They don’t concede much by way of chance quantity or quality, and have one of the best goaltenders backstopping them in Jake Oettinger. The American netminder posted a .925 save percentage (SV%) in the first round, but did so after conceding four goals in Game 1. He only allowed 10 goals in six games the rest of the way (.942 SV%) and looks unbeatable at the moment.

The Avalanche accumulated the third-most minutes on the power play this season while the Stars spent the 19th-most minutes shorthanded, creating tension between effective penalty-drawers and disciplined defenders. MacKinnon (15th), Makar (42nd), Wood (52nd), and Rantanen (71st) all ranked in the top 75 of skaters by penalties drawn during the regular season and will look to use their speed and size to lure the Stars into taking untimely infractions.

The Stars have been a very strong defensive team at five-on-five and expertly defend inside their own zone despite conceding the highest rate of zone entries in the league. The Avalanche may find it difficult to penetrate the Stars’ shell at even strength, meaning the special teams battlefield should play a key role in determining who moves onto the Western Conference Final.

Avalanche and Stars Could Be Best Series of the 2024 Playoffs

Both the Avalanche and the Stars embody the best of the modern era of hockey, blending speed, skill, and toughness en route to recent postseason success. Colorado is driven by two of the NHL’s most dynamic offensive figures, while the Stars overwhelm through balanced depth up front.

Considering the strength of their respective first-round opponents, both clubs completed impressive series wins over talented adversaries and bolstered their Stanley Cup credentials going forward.

There are genuine stars at nearly every position on both sides, spearheaded by two of the sport’s most-esteemed coaches, and legacy-defining storylines galore. Strap in, this series could be one for the ages.

Data courtesy of AllThreeZones, Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and the NHL.