Ottawa Senators NHL Draft Lottery Primer

With the seventh-best odds to claim the first-overall pick, the Senators are in an enviable position, especially with the talent that’s available this year. But many things could happen between the lottery and the draft, so here’s a look at some potential scenarios for the Senators at the Draft.

Most Likely Scenario – Seventh Overall

Right now, the Senators have the seventh overall pick with a 44.4% chance to stay there. No team outside the top five has moved up at the lottery since the New York Rangers jumped from 12th to 1st in 2020. That could happen again this season, with the San Jose Sharks sitting with the best odds to take first, followed by the Chicago Blackhawks and Anaheim Ducks, both of which were in the lottery last year.

Having another top-10 pick in their arsenal would be a treat, especially from this draft. They could address their defensive depth with Zayne Parekh or Carter Yakemchuk, two right-handed blueliners with high offensive upside, or go for a more well-rounded defender in Sam Dickinson. They could also look at some skilled forwards to try and fill out their top nine with Tij Iginla, Konsta Helenius, Cole Eiserman, or Michael Brandsegg-Nygard. None of them will be ready for several years, of course, but bolstering their waning prospect pool needs to be a priority.

Because the Senators lack any sure-fire top-six players in their prospect pool, general manager Steve Staios will likely keep the pick, which is something that Ottawa hasn’t done since 2021. In 2022, the seventh overall pick, which was used to select Kevin Korchinski, was sent to the Blackhawks for Alex DeBrincat, and in 2023, the 12th overall pick was used to acquire Jakub Chychrun from the Arizona Coyotes, who used it to draft Daniil But. Neither of those trades worked out for the Senators, and given Staios’ cautious approach thus far, there’s little chance it’s dealt.

Best Case Scenario – First Overall

Although the Senators have just a 6.5% chance to jump up to first, stranger things have happened; the Rangers, who stole the first pick in 2020, had just a 2.5% chance to do that. The season before, the Blackhawks moved from 12th to 3rd, and before that, the Carolina Hurricanes moved up from 11th to 2nd. However, those types of moves aren’t possible anymore following several rule changes in 2021-22, which stated that teams can’t move up more than 10 spots with a lottery win, nor can they win more than twice in five years. Neither applies to the Senators, so a first-overall pick is still in the cards.

Adding Macklin Celebrini would be a massive win for a Senators organization that hasn’t had many in recent memory. Not only would he give Ottawa a sure-fire top-six center, but he could also make one (or more) of their core players expendable. One could be Josh Norris, who was supposed to take over the second-line center spot but has struggled with numerous shoulder injuries that have limited him to just 58 games over the past two seasons. His inability to stay healthy has put the Senators in a difficult situation, especially with his nearly $8 million cap hit. Getting that off the books would be much easier – both financially and mentally – if Celebrini was in the mix.

Worst Case Scenario – Ninth Overall

The 2024 Draft Lottery will only select two balls, one for second overall and one for first, meaning that the lowest the Senators can drop is ninth overall. While that’s not ideal, it’s also not a bad place to be. Several prospects that could be targeted at seventh overall will still be available at ninth, as could some unexpected names. In Bob McKenzie’s recent top-16 ranking, he mentioned that, after Celebrini, it’s almost impossible to predict who will go where. He listed Berkly Catton, who finished the season with 54 goals and 116 points for the Western Hockey League’s (WHL) Spokane Chiefs, at 11th overall. Given his speed, intelligence, and skills, he could pair very well with Tim Stutzle.

The varying opinions of who is second-best could also push down some other top prospects like defenceman Zeev Buium and big center Cayden Lindstrom; those two were among eight different players who were listed as potential fourth-overall picks along with Anton Silayev, Ivan Demidov, Anton Levshunov, Parekh, Dickinson, and Yakemchuk. At least one of them will still be available at the ninth pick, meaning Staios can sit back and wait to take whoever falls to him.

What About the Dadonov Punishment?

Senators fans might not want to talk about it, but it must be considered. The NHL came down hard on former general manager Pierre Dorion for his role in not disclosing the terms of Evgenii Dadonov’s contract signed in 2020, stripping the Senators of a first-round pick in either 2024, 2025, or 2026. Giving up this year’s top-10 pick might seem out of the question, but it’s worth considering, given what may be coming up in the next two years.

The 2025 Draft is going to be one for the ages. Sitting at the top is James Hagens, who put up 102 points in 58 games with the United States U18 Development Team (NTDP) and scored a tournament-leading 22 points in nine games at the U18 World Junior Championships that just ended. He’ll be joined by Michael Misa, a dynamic offensive presence who was granted exceptional status for the 2022-23 season, and Porter Martone, who scored 33 goals with the Ontario Hockey League’s (OHL) Mississauga Steelheads and is already 6-foot-3 at 17 years old. There’s also Roger McQueen, Caleb Desnoyers, Anton Frondell, Malcolm Spence, and Cole Reschny, all of whom have made waves this season. If the Senators somehow end up with another top-10 pick next season, they can’t afford to pass on that talent.

That leaves 2026, and if the Senators are a lottery team once again, they could have a chance to select Gavin McKenna, who promises to be on a similar level to Connor Bedard. He fell just three points short of Bedard’s 16-year-old 100-point season but set a Canadian record for the most points at the U18 World Championships and the most goals (10) in seven games. Fewer players eligible for the 2026 Draft Class have caught scouts’ attention than next year’s, but there are a few to watch, such as Ryan Roobroeck, Viggo Bjorck, Ethan Belchetz, Joe Iginla, and Adam Nemec.

Still, the Senators would be smart to wait until the last possible moment. Not only should they be competing for a playoff spot by then, or at the very least be right at the cusp, but the league has a history of softening on harsh punishments. Just take the New Jersey Devils, who were stripped of a first-round pick following the Ilya Kovalchuk contract. The team waited out the punishment and, in the end, instead of being forced to lose their 2014 draft pick, were given the 30th overall pick instead. On the other hand, there’s the Coyotes, who were immediately reprimanded for Draft Combine testing infractions and lost their 2020 second-round pick and their 2021 first-round pick, which ended up being 11th overall. It’s a risk, but luck may be on the Senators’ side with a new owner and general manager.

Regardless of what happens in the next several hours, the Senators must make this draft count. Too many short-sighted decisions were made over the past several seasons that hurt the future of the team. Staios has proven to be a patient leader, and that is going to continue into the draft, but a little extra help from a lottery win would surely make the situation seem a bit more optimistic in Ottawa.