How Finished are the LA Clippers?

For the fourth-straight season, the LA Clippers were eliminated while Kawhi Leonard was sidelined with a right knee injury.

Leonard suffered a torn right ACL in the 2021 Western Conference Semi-Finals that forced him to miss the franchise’s first Western Conference Finals appearance and all of the next season. Appearing in 52 games during the 2022-23 season, Leonard worked his way through what the star forward called a two-year recovery process following ACL surgery, just to be sidelined again in the postseason with a meniscus tear in that same right knee.

After three-straight seasons were derailed by right knee injuries, this year finally felt different for Leonard. The Clippers star played in 68 games, his most since the 2016-17 season, and often looked like the top-three player LA signed in 2019.

Everything seemed to be pointing towards Leonard and the Clippers entering the postseason fully-healthy, until inflammation in the same right knee that cost him the last three postseasons ended Leonard’s season again.

With Leonard under contract through 2027, the Clippers face a complicated future that has no ideal solutions. Their brand new Intuit Dome is set to open this summer, which when combined with Leonard’s extension, leaves the organization with little choice but to continue pursuing a championship with him as the face.

Following another first round exit, what does that championship pursuit look like? Is it realistic? Possible at all? The definition of insanity? Let’s dive in.

While the Clippers have little choice but to run back some iteration of this year’s roster, there’s at least one justification for doing so that isn’t directly tied to Leonard’s contract and the brand new arena. From December 2nd to February 5th, the Clippers were the best team in basketball.

The Clippers went 26-5 in this stretch, and everyone within the organization seemed to assess it similarly - viewing it as a real look into this team’s ceiling, while also believing there was still another level that could be reached. 

“We’re right there,” Leonard said after a February 12th loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves. “We’ve been winning games, as everybody has seen. There’s ways for us to get better. That’s what’s scary… Now is the time to turn it around.”

That loss to Minnesota was the second in three games for the Clippers, and was part of an uninspiring 17-16 stretch to close the season, and an overall 25-26 record outside of that torrid 26-5 run. What’s unsettling, is that nobody can say with a level of certainty whether that 26-5 stretch defines this Clippers group, or the much bigger 51-game sample outside of it. 

“We don’t know,” James Harden said with a chuckle when asked after a March 25th loss to Indiana if the Clippers are the team that had a 26-5 stretch or the team who at that point was 18-22 outside of it.

It’s important to note that in the 51 games outside of LA’s 26-5 stretch, five came before James Harden debuted, and eight came in the final two weeks without Kawhi Leonard. But that being said, if those 31 games from December 2nd to February 5th was the team’s only real stretch of health throughout the season, then perhaps it would be easier to say that’s who the Clippers truly are. And if that’s the case, then the ceiling of this group is undoubtedly a championship contender. But the NBA season is not 31 games long, and in a year the Clippers got 68 games from Kawhi Leonard, 72 games from James Harden, and 74 games from Paul George, they finished just fourth in the Western Conference. 

The reward for the fourth seed was a date in round one with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, as opposed to a matchup with one of the 6th, 7th, or 8th seed teams that looked much less imposing.

Leonard, George, and Harden averaging 71 games played again next season is hard to bet on. And if they do, can the trio make a big enough improvement from this season to next season in order to finish higher than fourth in the standings? Can the front office, under a brutally restrictive CBA, improve this roster enough to make it a top-three seed? Because as history shows, fourth seeds do not win championships. And in a year the Clippers got the healthiest version of their three stars in five years, that’s what they were.

Clippers President of Basketball Operations Lawrence Frank addressed the media on Monday morning, and while he acknowledged the organization is not naive in believing they can simply "run it back" next year and hope for different results, he reiterated several times that the team is committed to their star trio of Leonard, George, and Harden.

Frank said the Clippers are still big believers that their championship window is still open, and cited possible improvement from Leonard, George, and Harden as one of the reasons why.

"Just because guys dealt with injuries or they're in their mid-thirties, sometimes there's some fans [who think] things just fall off a cliff," Frank said. "There's not a lot of evidence of that. Paul, Kawhi, and James played at a pretty high level this year. I fully expect them to be able for the next couple years to maintain a high level."

Frank added, "I see the young stars that are rising, and we're not in denial about it, but I still think this group - we're gonna ask them to be better, too. You don't stop being better."

When asked about this idea that Leonard, George, and Harden can all still improve, and if they can do so to the degree necessary in order for LA to be a true contender, Frank said, "Without a doubt. The best players, they always add something to their game. Now, as you become in your mid-thirties - which isn't ancient, as you age, sometimes it's doing something different than what you've done before. And many times, it's not a statable thing."

While Frank acknowledged several times the Clippers are confident they can field a roster next season that will be better than the one that just suffered another first round exit, he ultimately stated the organization still believes this core can win it all - despite the last four years saying otherwise.

Now even amid all this uncertainty about LA’s ceiling as currently constructed, it’s reasonable for the organization to believe they’d have beaten the Mavericks with the version of Kawhi Leonard that averaged 29.3 PPG in the month of December on 61/50/96 splits. But even ignoring the fact that Leonard has not finished a playoff run healthy since 2020, does the very best version of him lead this Clippers group to a championship?

As the Clippers followed their 23-5 record in December and January with a 16-12 mark in February and March, the regression received different explanations from different people. Ty Lue cited a lack of mental toughness, Paul George shared alarming quotes about the team’s missing identity, and Kawhi Leonard called out overall poor effort. While all of the above contributed to a stretch that took the Clippers from a brief stay atop the Western Conference to fight for the fourth seed, is it possible their issues were deeper than a veteran team that simply took their foot off the gas?

In just February and March, Paul George had seven games where he shot below 40% from the field. James Harden had 12 in the same span. For comparison, Kawhi Leonard had just 10 all season. For an additional comparison, Oklahoma City Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander did so just five times in his 75 games this year.

And while both George and Harden had plenty of great performances in this stretch, it was the uncertainty around which version of those two players would show up on a nightly basis that raised valid concerns about this team’s playoff ceiling - even with the best version of Kawhi Leonard. Could the Clippers count on George and Harden to show up four times in seven games for four-straight rounds? Would Leonard’s greatness be enough to overcome the nights when they did not? In the playoffs, when the margin for error is smaller than ever, can a team afford to be paying $81.2M for the level of volatility George and Harden come with?

That last question is especially relevant for a Clippers team so heavily reliant on their three stars, because to put it simply, the current roster is built to be carried by them.

Norman Powell is an incredibly efficient scorer, but limited in his ability to do much else. Ivica Zubac is a top-three rim protector in basketball with an elite post game, but will never be fully utilized with this roster construction. Russell Westbrook has averaged 16/7/6 on 46.4% from the field and 35.0% from deep in 37 career starts for the Clippers (including the playoffs), but spent most of this season attempting to make the most of a role that couldn’t be further from what he’s best at. Terance Mann is a proven high-level role player, and a very rare draft success story for the Clippers, but seems capped at 25 minutes per game so long as the team is fully intact. Amir Coffey is another rare homegrown success story for LA, but is still not respected by opposing defenses the way his 38.0% clip from deep in the regular season suggests he would be. Mason Plumlee, Daniel Theis, and P.J. Tucker all have uncertain futures in the NBA.

And on top of this, the Clippers don’t exactly have a crop of young talent knocking down the door between DNPs and the regular rotation. Bones Hyland’s upside is undeniable, and the flashes have certainly been there, but he also struggled mightily in his biggest opportunity of the season when Russell Westbrook fractured his hand. Entering the rotation as LA’s backup point guard once Westbrook went down, Hyland was ultimately removed from the rotation before Westbrook returned, averaging 5.6 PPG on 36.2% from the field in 12 games before Ty Lue went away from the young guard entirely. 

Kobe Brown, Jordan Miller, and Kai Jones have each been great in the G League, but the gap between a high-level G League player and an impactful NBA rotation piece is big enough to make all three far from a sure thing.

All of this leaves the Clippers staring up at a Western Conference that has passed them up. And in a year they were hoping to open their brand new building with a ring ceremony, the Clippers will be opening it with the hope that next year won’t end the way each of the last four did. Could the front office pull off a miracle and improve this roster to the degree needed to truly contend? Perhaps. But that’s seemingly what it will take for this iteration of the Clippers to fulfill the expectations made in 2019 when a 20-year-old future MVP finalist was sent to Oklahoma City for a star duo that was supposed to finally deliver a championship to an organization without one.

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