Bills projected to have one of NFL's toughest schedules in 2024 season

We’re (likely) just a few days away from learning the intricacies of the Buffalo Bills’ 2024 slate, as the NFL is widely expected to release its 2024 regular season schedule on Thursday, May 9. We’ve known the opponents each team will face throughout the 2024 campaign since the end of last season, but Thursday’s (expected) schedule reveal will disclose the dates and times of each contest.

Buffalo’s list of 2024 opponents, on paper, seems quite tough, and Bleacher Report recently provided a metric backing this sentiment; B/R’s Tyler Conway wrote an article listing each NFL team’s 2024 strength of schedule, with the Bills being tied for the sixth hardest schedule in the league at .516.

This number indicates that Buffalo’s 2024 opponents, when their 2023 records are combined, won roughly 52% of their games a year ago. Per the metric, the Cleveland Browns have the league’s toughest 2024 schedule at .547. The Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints tie for the league’s easiest schedule at .453.

Conway rightfully notes in his article that strength of schedule is not a flawless metric in accurately determining how difficult a team’s slate actually is, as the number doesn’t factor in a team’s offseason acquisitions and departures. The incomplete metric seems to match the eye test with regard to the Bills, however, as the team’s 2024 opponents list looks stout.

Seven of the teams Buffalo is set to play in the 2024 season qualified for last year’s playoffs. The Bills are set to host both teams that appeared in Super Bowl LVIII (the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers), with these clubs accounting for two of the five 2023 divisional winners Buffalo will see next season.

The tougher matchups on the Bills’ slate include the aforementioned duels with the Chiefs and 49ers in addition to meetings with the Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, and Houston Texans. Both the Lions and Ravens appeared in their respective conference championship games last season while the Texans, after winning both the AFC South and a playoff game, acquired star wideout Stefon Diggs from Buffalo in the offseason. 

One also cannot overlook the Bills’ divisional matchups; though the New England Patriots appear to be in a rebuild, there’s always a bit of animosity present in Buffalo vs. New England contests. Both the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets figure to be competitive this year, as well. 

Buffalo’s schedule, on paper, seems challenging, but games are not played on paper. We’ll have a better read on how challenging the team’s schedule truly is—and how the Bills comparatively match up—come September.