Steelers Are Making An Unusual Bet By Declining Najee Harris' Fifth-Year Option

The Pittsburgh Steelers surprised many of their fans by declining the fifth-year option of running back Najee Harris on Thursday. General Manager Omar Khan and the organization waited until the last minute before the deadline of 4 PM on May 2nd to make a decision. It seemed like a no-brainer to pick up the option and keep Harris in Pittsburgh through the 2025 season, after all he has been extremely productive for the Steelers as he has surpassed 1,000 yards in all three seasons he has been in the NFL. 

Pittsburgh declining the option says a lot about how the organization feels about Harris. They appear to be expecting his play to decline, and don't think he will be worth the $6.79 million that his option would have paid him during the 2025 season. If the Steelers had picked up the option, they would have had no way of getting out of it as all of the money would have been fully guaranteed. Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk said he views the situation as the Steelers betting on the under when it comes to Harris' performance moving forward.

"This is the Steelers making the bet, you don't see teams usually bet the under with their players. But they're hedging on the side of $6.79 million he is going to be a bad investment a year from now. If we end up having to pay him more to keep him, good problem to have." 

With Harris' option being declined, he will hit free agency following the 2024 season as long as he doesn't agree on a new deal with Pittsburgh before then. This bet by Pittsburgh is strange, as Harris will be set up better than he ever has before to have a career year. Pittsburgh added the final pieces to their rebuilt offensive line in Troy Fautanu and Zach Frazier, and the Steelers also brought in Arthur Smith as the new offensive coordinator who operates a very run-heavy offense.

Every NFL fan recalls the success that Derrick Henry had with the Tennessee Titans during the 2019 and 2020 NFL seasons. He led the NFL in rushing in both years, and broke the 2,000 yard mark in 2020. Most of that success was due to Smith's offense, and Henry and Harris are fairly similar, they are both big running backs who can carry the ball effectively upwards of 15 times a game. Harris shares carries with Jaylen Warren so he should not be expected to have some immaculate 2,000 yard season, but he will be more effective than he has ever been running behind the best line of his career. 

Harris averaged the most yards per carry of his career in 2023 while having his least carries in a season. If he can bring that efficiency into Smith's run-heavy offense where he is expected to run the ball more, his production should sky rocket.

Steelers New And Improved Passing Game Will Benefit Harris

During Harris' rookie season, the offense was led by an aging Ben Roethlisberger in the last year of his career. Since then Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph, or Mitch Trubisky have been at the helm. Pittsburgh completely revamped the quarterback room for the 2024 season, starting by releasing Trubisky, letting Rudolph walk in free agency, and trading Pickett. They went out and signed a proven veteran in Russell Wilson and traded for a young player with a high ceiling in Justin Fields, meaning the passing game could be set up to be the best Harris has had since coming to Pittsburgh.

The run game and passing game play off of each other, when one finds success it's easier for the other to succeed. This Steelers offense should be able to keep defenses guessing. Harris will be in the best offense of his professional career in 2024, meaning the Steelers might have made a bad bet by expecting his play to decline.