Jesse Winker Is Already Trying To Hit His Way Off the Nationals

As a pleasant bonus, Winker has already stolen two bases. No one will ever confuse him for a speedster, but it’s nice to see him showing a little more aggression on the basepaths. From 2017-23, he stole just three bases on six attempts. With one more steal, he will have doubled his career total in 2024. How many other guys can say that in their age-30 season?

Now for a quick dose of reality: Winker isn’t going to keep this up. His 196 wRC+ is ludicrous, and his .439 BABIP is far beyond sustainable. He has had hot stretches like this before, most recently in June 2022. He walked in 19.5% of his plate appearances that month, putting up a .424 OBP and 166 wRC+. Over the rest of the season, he was barely a league-average hitter. Then came his disastrous 2023 campaign.

I don’t bring that up to imply Winker is due for another dreadful slump. Rather, I just want to drill home the point that 17 games is a small, small sample size. There’s only so much we can learn about a player from his performance over 17 games.

Still, for what it’s worth, Winker is doing everything he needs to do to succeed. His underlying numbers don’t support his 1.067 OPS, but they’re not too shabby, either.

His hard-hit rate isn’t nearly as high as it was during his best seasons in 2020 and ‘21, but it is significantly higher than in 2022 or ‘23. He has also trimmed his whiff rate and strikeout rate from last season.

Winker was an above-average hitter for the first six years of his career. He has always walked at a high rate, and when he has combined that with plus power, he has been a truly dangerous bat.

It’s fair to be hesitant about him following his mediocre 2022 and rotten 2023, but he is far from a lost cause. Perhaps the Winker from 2020-21 is gone, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a valuable contributor with the stick.

He has certainly been valuable to the Nationals, who are starved for offense once again. A couple of Washington’s promising young hitters (CJ Abrams and Luis García Jr.) are off to strong starts, but of the offseason acquisitions, only Winker is pulling his weight. Joey Gallo, Eddie Rosario, and Nick Senzel have combined for a 54 wRC+ and -0.4 FanGraphs WAR.

On that note, it’s hard to imagine Winker will still be playing in a Nationals uniform after the trade deadline this summer. The Nats are 8-10 with a -14 run differential and 0.3% playoff odds, per FanGraphs. Winker is set to reach free agency in November, and he currently looks like the team’s best trade chip.

I wrote about Jesse Winker a couple of times this offseason. First, I included him on my list of NL East bounce-back candidates. A month later, I wrote about him as a minor league signing who could have a major impact this year.

Three weeks into the season, he’s making me look pretty prescient. After a forgettable season in 2023, Winker is off to a strong start in 2024. It’s too soon to say what the future holds, but he is certainly having a major impact so far.