To kick off the 2024 campaign, the Minnesota Twins were off to a 7-13 start before an astounding 10-game win streak, their first since 2008, shot them back up the totem pole in the American League Central.
Minnesota entered the year as one of the favorites to win the Central, but they’ve faced some stiff competition early on. The Guardians are just about the best team in baseball, the Royals are the ultimate underdogs and even the Tigers are 18-13.
Those three clubs are three of the best in the AL so far. The Twins were nowhere near that conversation until the past week and a half. All of a sudden, the squad is 17-13 with a positive run differential (+15) and all the momentum in the world.
What exactly has been behind this sudden surge? Let’s dive into the team and explore what’s been going right for them.
Most of the Twins’ winning ways are coming thanks to a group of role players. Byron Buxton, who is once again dealing with a knee injury, and Max Kepler both are sporting below-average stat lines. Elsewhere, the likes of Carlos Santana, Kyle Farmer, Manuel Margot, Christian Vazquez and Matt Wallner are barely looking like big leaguers at the plate.
This is all without mentioning the fact that Royce Lewis, who was supposed to take this team by storm, made it into just one game before going down with yet another long-term injury.
Instead, the production is coming from lower on the organizational depth chart. Even though some of the usual suspects aren’t coming through (yet), the Twins’ offense ranks third in the AL in fWAR, fourth in wRC+, fifth in BB% and OPS and sixth in the AL in runs.
Runs Scored Last 3 Weeks
— Jon Anderson (@JonPgh) May 2, 2024
114: MIN
113:
112:
111:
110:
109:
108:
107:
106:
105:
104: PHI
103:
102:
101:
100:
99:
98:
97:
96: LAD, BAL
95:
94:
93: BOS
92: MIL
91: NYY
90: NYM
89: KC, DET
88: ATL, ARI
87: CIN
86: CLE
85:
84:
83: SD
82: HOU
81:
80:
79:
78:…
Edouard Julien, last year’s seventh-place finisher in the AL Rookie of the Year voting, is continuing to get on base and be a hugely productive contributor. Through 30 games, he’s got 12 extra-base hits (five doubles, seven home runs) with 16 runs scored and 12 more driven in. His .216 batting average doesn’t jump off the page, but he’s drawing a lot of walks and sporting an .812 OPS and 132 OPS+.
Switch-hitting utilityman Willi Castro is also scorching at the plate. He’s got 12 XBH with a .789 OPS and 127 OPS+ through 30 games while making defensive appearances at five different spots. He got the starting shortstop job in Carlos Correa‘s absence and hit .338 in 19 Correa-less games.
Ryan Jeffers, splitting his time between catcher and designated hitter, has five home runs and 19 RBI through 27 appearances. He’s always had pop in his bat but the .300 average and .948 OPS he’s got right now is especially impressive.
Once-promising prospect Alex Kirilloff debuted in 2021 but still has yet to appear in over 100 games in a season. He’s got 27 games under his belt so far and has a 127 OPS+ with a pair of home runs and 10 RBI.
Outside of Buxton, Kepler and the recently-returned Correa (who’s also swinging it well so far), this lineup doesn’t have a ton of firepower on paper, but they’re finding ways to beat the opposition even without their best bats clicking.
Twins starters have the third-highest ERA (4.87) in the AL and have allowed home runs at the second-highest rate in the league, too. However, they’re striking out a ton of batters (third in the AL in K/9) and have done just enough to get the ball to the bullpen with a lead.
Joe Ryan has been the best starter the Twins have by a long shot. In six starts, he’s got a 3.38 ERA and 2.79 FIP through 34.2 innings of work. Ryan is striking out 10.6 batters per nine innings and has also cut down on hits and walks allowed.
Turning the attention back to the bullpen, this group has been lights out. The relievers have 10.78 K/9, the most of any team in baseball outside of the Mets and are leaving over 83% of runners on base to end innings.
Each of Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Kody Funderburk, Steven Okert and Cole Sands have made 10 or more appearances and have an ERA+ north of 113. 36-year-old Jay Jackson also has 11 appearances and sports a 98 ERA+, which is only 2% below league-average.
There’s no way to talk about the magic happening in Minneapolis without at least mentioning the glorious summer sausage celebration that’s taken their clubhouse culture by storm.
The home run sausage in all its glory. #MNTwins pic.twitter.com/p4wbeoMJxa
— Bally Sports North (@BallySportsNOR) April 28, 2024
After beginning the year as one of baseball’s “wurst” teams, the Twins were in desperate need of some good vibes.
It’s unclear where exactly the sausage came from, but multiple reports have confirmed that Farmer, who at one point had an endorsement deal with a meat company, was somehow involved in its acquisition. Broken down by Twins manager Rocco Baldelli himself, it’s a “substantial packaged sausage that Jeffers has been carrying around in his bag and throwing at people when we score runs and hit home runs.”
Well there you have it.
From what I can tell, the sausage first appeared during the April 25 game against the White Sox. Once it did, Jeffers and Julien hit back-to-back home runs and the Twins scored 32 runs over the Angels in the next series. Players touch the sausage for luck before at-bats and have it take part in home run celebrations, too.
Baseball is a weird sport that frequently sees superstitions come to fruition. This one, while slightly nasty because of the fact that the sausage sits there unrefrigerated, seems to be helping the Twins get along just fine.
The Twins are rattling off wins at an alarming rate, but there’s hardly enough here to suggest that they’re here to stay. Most of the hot bats are due for a regression and the starting pitching has been embarrassingly poor outside of the amount of strikeouts they’re notching.
Over the past 10 days, the opposing teams have been the White Sox for a three-game series, the Angels for another three-game series and the White Sox again for three more. When you look at it that way, the streak becomes slightly less impressive, but 10 wins is 10 wins.
Next up on the docket for Minnesota is a couple of teams firmly in contention: the Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners.
Boston is 18-13 and riding a four-game win streak of their own as of today. Their 18-13 record is only good for third place in the AL East, which speaks volumes to the quality of play coming out of that division.
The Mariners, 17-14, are currently atop the AL West, which is a division that’s been the polar opposite of the East and Central. Seattle’s run differential is just +9 and the highest in that division is +12 from the Rangers.
Minnesota is going to have their hands full when they head to Fenway for their three-game weekend set. Their streak isn’t a 100% lock to come to a close, but this is going to be the first legitimate competition they’ve faced in nearly two weeks.
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