Breaking Down Corbin Carroll’s Slow Start to 2024

And the reason for Carroll’s higher pop up rate points back to the fact that he his getting under the ball more at a far higher clip in 2024 than he was in 2023, as well as seeing a significant drop in flare/burner rate and a noticeable rise in topped rate.

According to Baseball Savant, Carroll has seen a rise in Under% of 6.8%, a rise in Topped% of 2.6%, all while seeing a drop in flare/burner%. With Carroll’s speed, hitting the ball on the ground is not the worst thing, but if he is not hitting in the ground hard, he’s not putting the same pressure on the defense to make tough plays against him.

The drop in flate/burner% shows how Carroll has been missing the sweet-spot of the bat by a wider margin than last year.

Does Carroll Have Any Issues with His Approach?

This lack of strong contact could potentially be explained by his swing decisions this season.

In 2023 he had an approach where a lot of his swings came in the middle zones of the plate, as well as low and away. In 2024, the two most common areas where Carroll finds himself swinging 75% of the time (or more) are on pitches he sees that are middle-up, and middle-in.

Now why is this important?

In terms of Expected Batting Average, Carroll hit pitches high and away, middle-away and middle-in the best last year. His expected batting average in those zones was .368, .363 and .372 respectively.

This year, he is swinging in those middle zones even more frequently than he did last year, but without seeing the same success. Hunting middle-in isn’t a bad approach for Carroll to take. Last year, Carroll’s .372 xBA middle-in was the highest of any zone for him.

The problem this year is that his expected average middle-in is a measly .167 through May 1 this season. Carroll’s pull% has dropped from 42.7% last year, to 35.8% this year, which coincides with the poor expected batting average on balls pitched inside.

Carroll has seen a drop in expected batting average of 80 points or more on all pitches he is seeing on the inside part of the plate. When you combine that with the drop in pull-percentage, it becomes clear why Carroll is struggling to tap into his pull-side power where he is getting the barrel out in front early to meet those pitches inside.

Through April last year, Carroll has already hit four home runs, eight doubles and a triple for a total of 13 extra-base hits. This year, he has just one home runs and three doubles.

Now, the other area Carroll swings at most is middle-up, which makes sense when you consider that he hit .325 against those pitches last year, with a .280 expected batting average. This year, he is hitting .182 with a .214 expected batting average on those pitches middle-up. These are likely the pitches that are leading to the surge in pop-up rate for Carroll.

While the results have not been there, Carroll’s swing approach isn’t all that bad to start this season. He’s swinging in zones that he thrived in last season, like middle-in and middle-away. The focus now for him should be on his timing and approach against fastballs to improve the results he’s seen against the heater thus far.

Why Carroll Deserves Patience

After the season Carroll had last year and the faith the Diamondbacks showed in him with an 8-year $111 million deal ahead of the 2023 season, he deserves the benefit of the doubt. And there are things about his approach that have warranted hope that this might merely be an early slump and not the start of some sudden and rapid decline.

It is also worth acknowledging that Carroll battled some shoulder discomfort in the back half of last season. The same shoulder that he had surgically repaired when he was in the Minor Leagues.

The good news is, Carroll has kept his strikeout rate in check, actually down 3% from his mark of 19.4% last season. He has also has improved his walk-rate in 2024 by 3%, getting on base via the free-pass 11.9% of the time.

And he has actually struck out at a lower clip as well, posting a K-rate of 16.4%, down 3% from the 19.4% he posted last season.

In his media availability after their game against the Dodgers on May 1st, Diamondbacks Manager Torey Lovullo said he feels Corbin Carroll has shown encouraging signs in recent days of trending in the right direction, referencing better swing choices and harder hit balls in recent games.

“I think the storm is coming,” Lovullo said.

With an encouraging series against the Dodgers earlier this week that sees him sporting a three-game hitting streak, Lovullo might be on to something when he said his star hitter’s Day 1 started a few days ago.

Hopefully for the Diamondbacks, Carroll can get things going soon, as he is typically the catalyst that can get his team going in the right direction.