NBA best bets: Picks against spread, moneyline predictions, player props, odds for Thursday 4/11

Knicks vs. Celtics

Thursday, April 11, 7:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Jalen Brunson Over 36.5 PTS + AST (-130, Bet365)

By Joe Dellera

The Knicks take on the Celtics today in an extremely important game for the Knicks for seeding purposes while Boston has already locked in the overall No. 1 seed.

The Knicks have been powered by Jalen Brunson in the absence of Julius Randle and he should continue to find success today.

Without Randle, Brunson has averaged 32.1 points, 7.3 assists, and 3.3 rebounds in 29 games. His PTS + AST line is set at 35.5, a number he has exceeded in 59% of the non-Randle games including four straight games while averaging 42.2 PTS + AST over his last 10 games.

The Knicks have needed all of these contributions from Brunson to climb the standings heading into the playoffs. Given the motivation here, and the fact that Boston likely continues to rest their best players in the fourth quarter, Brunson has a clear path to exceeding this line.

Pick: Jalen Brunson Over 36.5 Points + Assists (-130)

Knicks vs. Celtics

Thursday, April 11, 7:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Knicks ML + Brunson Over 28.5 PTS (+205, FanDuel)

By Bryan Fonseca

The Knicks are -2.5 point favorites in Boston tonight because the Celtics don't have a damn thing to play for.

Knowing that, their injury report is longer than Yu-Gi-Oh's Battle City arc, with six players listed as "day-to-day" including Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford, Xavier Tillman and Jrue Holiday.

Hilariously, ESPN lists Holiday as questionable and the status essentially reads "just signed an extension."

So yeah, Boston has nothing to play for, and if the Knicks are going to win this game, Jalen Brunson is likely going to go over 28.5 points, which he has gone over in four straight and in six of seven.

Have fun, Payton Pritchard.

Pick: Knicks ML + Jalen Brunson Over 28.5 Points (+205)

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Knicks vs. Celtics

Thursday, April 11, 7:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Knicks -2.5 (-112, FanDuel)

By ASA

The Celtics have nothing left to play for as they have the No. 1 overall seed locked up through the NBA Finals. New York on the other hand has plenty to play for as they sit in the 2-seed in the Eastern Conference and would land there if they win out or even fall back to the #6 or #7 if they lose out.

Due to the circumstances, you have to ignore the Celtics season dominance of the Knicks as they've won all four meetings with New York. Boston is going to sit players in this game (potentially Brown, Holiday, Tatum, Porzingis and Horford) and will waive the white flag early once they fall behind.

The Knicks continue to get stellar play from PG Jalen Brunson (averaging 34 PPG over his last 10 games) and now have Anunoby back in the lineup after missing several weeks with an injury.

We love the Celtics depth but you can't sit 3-5 of your starters and still expect to win in the NBA. New York clearly shouldn't be favored on the road here, but the number tells us they are favored for a reason. Bet the Knicks.

Pick: Knicks -2.5 (-112)

Rockets vs. Jazz

Thursday, April 11, 9 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Jalen Green Over 28.5 PTS (-120, Bet365)

By Joe Dellera

The Rockets take on the Jazz in what should be an incredibly fast-paced matchup. The Jazz play at the 10th-fastest pace in the league and the Rockets are seventh since the All-Star Break.

Jalen Green has been incredible without Sengun as the offense is playing a bit faster and the spacing is different with Sengun off the floor. It’s not necessarily better but it is different and working well for Jalen.

In his last 10 games, he is averaging 24.6 points and 5.5 Assists on 11.5 potentials. He did miss this line of 4.5 assists against Utah on 3-of-23 with just seven potentials but that was in large part because he dropped 41 points on them.

In the other matchup against Utah recently he scored just 34 points and added in six assists on 13 potentials.

The scoring has taken a bit of a dip over the past few games but the matchups were more difficult against Orlando (Suggs), Dallas (Exum), and Miami. This is an excellent bounce back spot.

I expect Jalen Green to exceed 28.5 PTS + AST and don’t mind playing some 35+ (+230 DK) and 40+ (+550 DK).

Pick: Jalen Green Over 28.5 Points (-120)

Pelicans vs. Kings

Thursday, April 11, 10 p.m. ET, TNT
Pelicans ML (-105, DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

The Pelicans are 1.5-point underdogs tonight in Sacramento.

As a road underdog, they have the best win-loss record in the NBA this season at 11-7, the only team with a winning percentage above 50. And as a road underdog against the spread, they're 12-5-1, the only team above 64% in the league, having a cover rate of 70.6%.

But since the spread is a measly 1.5, I'll just take them to win the game. If this were +3.5 or larger, I'd take them to cover.

As a home favorite, Sacramento is 14-20 ATS, ninth worst in the league, and their win-loss record is 21-13 — that sounds good, but they're nearly in the league's bottom 10 in terms of winning percentage in that scenario, plus, Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk remain out while Keegan Murray is questionable.

Brandon Ingram remains out for NOLA, with Naji Marshall's status in question.

Pick: Pelicans ML (-105)

Pelicans vs. Kings

Thursday, April 11, 10 p.m. ET, TNT
Pelicans TT Over 108.5 (-110, FanDuel)

By Joe Dellera

The Pelicans look to secure their fifth victory over the Kings this season. Yes, fifth. They are 4-0 and get an extra game because of the In-Season Tournament.

The Pelicans are short road dogs here despite having a better net rating since the All-Star Break at (+5.5) compared to the Kings (+3.8), per NBA Advanced Stats.

In each of the prior four matchups, the Pelicans won while scoring 117, 127, 129, and 133 points. Their offense dominated. All of those games had totals above 233.5 whereas this game is set at 217.

To me, this is much more of a downgrade for the Kings’ offense without Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter than it is for the Pelicans’ offense who will be without Brandon Ingram for the first time all season in this matchup.

Ingram, Herb Jones, and Jonas Valanciunas are the only Pelicans to play in all four games while Zion (3), McCollum (2), Nance (2), and Murphy (2) all are joining the fold now.

New Orleans’ offense has been stuck in the mud a bit over the past few weeks scoring just 111.9 points per 100 over the last two weeks while Sacramento’s defense has been strong allowing just 109.9 per 100. However, the Pelicans had that brutal stretch with two games against Phoenix, then games against Boston, Orlando, and Milwaukee.

For Sacramento, they had a few impressive performances limiting the Mavericks, Clippers (without Kawhi), and Boston (who had already clinched the 1-seed) but they still lost to the Thunder, Knicks, Mavericks, and Celtics.

Additionally, this is being pulled down because they held Brooklyn to just 77 points as well.

This matchup has gone well for the Pelicans this season and the loss of Ingram is mitigated due to the diverse offensive scoring options on the team.

The Kings simply do not have a solid defensive option to slow down Zion, and McCollum has performed well in this spot too. I expect them to exceed their team total of 108.5.

Pick: Pelicans Team Total Over 108.5 Points (-110)

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