MLB best bets: Tigers vs. Rays odds, pick, predictions for Tuesday 4/23

Tigers vs. Rays Odds

Tuesday, April 23, 6:50 p.m. ET, BSSUN

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here

Detroit Tigers

Maeda struggled in 2023 with a 4.23 ERA through 21 appearances on the mound for Minnesota, and he was hoping for a fresh start in Detroit this season. However, the opposite has reigned true for the right-hander to start this season, as he is 0-1 with a troubling 7.64 ERA and 1.58 WHIP through his first four starts.

Maeda's underlying metrics suggest positive regression is unlikely considering he ranks in the 16th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and Barrel%. He may not get much run support either since Detroit has struggled at the dish this season.

Entering this matchup, the Tigers rank in the bottom 10 of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs. These woes are likely to continue against Pepiot, a pitcher whom this lineup possesses a mere .147 xBA, .284 xSLG and .179 xwOBA against.

Tampa Bay Rays

Speaking of Pepiot, his analytics suggest positive regression is looming considering he ranks in the 74th percentile in xERA and 82nd percentile in xBA. We have already seen this positive regression start to come to fruition in his latest start against the Los Angeles Angels, a game in which he allowed just one run on three hits through six innings of work.

We could see a similar performance against Detroit, a team Pepiot had success against in his lone career meeting. He allowed just one run on five hits through six innings pitched.

Pepiot may also not receive a tremendous amount of run support, but Tampa still outranks Detroit in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs. The Rays also possess the edge on the base paths, which is becoming an increasingly clear way to, no pun intended, steal games this year.

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Tigers vs. Rays

Betting Pick & Prediction

The one advantage Detroit possesses in this game is the bullpen, which is why we are catching a +134 return on Tampa's run line. Reading that, you may want to head to the F5 market for this game to avoid the bullpen discrepancy, but it doesn't concern me personally as the Rays are so much stronger in virtually every other facet of the game.

They are clearly the stronger hitting team, outranking the Tigers in virtually every hitting statistic across the board. Meanwhile, Pepiot has been head and shoulders above Maeda this season, both statistically and analytically.

Add in the advantage on the base paths as well as playing on their home diamond, and I don't see much reason why the Rays wouldn't take care of business in this matchup. I believe there is more value in taking Tampa -1.5 at +134 via FanDuel rather than laying -152 on the moneyline, especially when you consider that each of its past 13 wins over Detroit have come by at least a two-run margin.

Pick: Rays -1.5 (+134 at FanDuel | Play to +125)