MLB best bets: Expert picks and props for Wednesday 4/24

Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals

Wednesday, April 24, 1:15 p.m. ET, MLB.tv
Diamondbacks ML -118 (FanDuel)

By Brad Cunningham

Jordan Montgomery has looked pretty strong to begin the season. His Stuff+ numbers are up from last year (94 to 101) because he's made a pretty noticeable shift in his pitch arsenal. He's abandoned his fastball and made his sinker his primary pitch with his changeup and curveball as his sole two secondary pitches.

Since all three of those pitches are designed to live down in the zone, he needs to be generating a high number of ground balls to be successful given how little velocity he has left.

The Cardinals lineup has really struggled out of the gates against left-handed pitching, with only an 83 wRC+. If you go back to the beginning of last season, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman and Willson Contreras are the only three hitters with a wRC+ above 100 against lefties.

Kyle Gibson has been a pretty big disaster to start the season with an xERA over six. The problem is that he has little to no velocity left, and his command is now gone as well. His Walk Rate is the highest it's been since 2020, but his sweeper is probably even more concerning because it is the lone pitch that is above average, yet it is getting hit around a .301 xwOBA as its Whiff Rate is down 10%.

The gap in the starting pitching matchup is far too wide for the Diamondbacks to be this low on the moneyline. I have them projected at -141, so I like the value on them at -118.

Pick: Diamondbacks ML -118

Mets vs. Giants

Wednesday, April 24, 3:45 p.m. ET, MLB.tv
New York Mets ML +115 (Caesars)

By D.J. James

Sean Manaea faces his former team in the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday, while Blake Snell takes the bump for the G-men against the New York Mets.

However, you would not think the reigning Cy Young Award winner would be this bad early on. Well, Snell has been absolutely brutal with an 11.57 ERA against a 4.10 xERA. Sure, his ERA will come down, but he is giving up harder contact than in 2023, and he is striking out far fewer hitters. He has always struggled with walking batters, but this number is down a bit from his 13.3% Walk Rate in 2023.

Manaea has a higher xERA and allows more fly balls than Snell. However, he has been more in line with prior years. He has walk issues as well, but he is striking out more batters than Snell is thus far.

The kicker here is how much better the Mets are against lefties. The Giants hold a 102 wRC+, which is a touch above average, but getting Snell at this stage should benefit the Mets. They have a 15.3% Strikeout Rate and 122 wRC+.

The New York relief staff has some great arms who can close out a game. However, San Francisco's bullpen has had its issues. The Giants are about average in relief, while the Mets are far better.

The Mets should have an edge with the sticks as they are getting Snell at his absolute lowest point in some time. He will get back to form, but the Mets should score early and often. Take them from +115 on the moneyline to -115.

Pick: New York Mets Moneyline +115 (Bet to -115)

Athletics vs. Yankees

Wednesday, April 24, 7:05 p.m. ET, MLB.tv
Yankees -1.5 +100 (ESPN BET)

By Sean Paul

To many baseball fans' surprise, betting on the Oakland A’s is profitable in 2024. However, this winning trend will shift on Wednesday in the rubber match of this Athletics vs. Yankees series in the Bronx.

The A’s will roll out rookie starter Joe Boyle, who’s posted a 7.23 ERA in 20 innings. It hasn’t been all bad for Boyle as he allowed seven or more runs in two starts and one or fewer in his other two, so Boyle has either blown up or given Oakland solid innings. I think it’s more likely that he struggles against the Bronx Bombers.

The Yankees make pitchers who don’t throw strikes pay, and Boyle has walked 12 batters in four starts, which puts him in the 13th percentile in baseball. Boyle has to face a tough lineup like the Yankees with the scuffling Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, who won’t swing at bad pitches. Not striking out batters — Boyle ranks in the 40th percentile — and walking too many batters is a nightmare waiting to happen in New York.

Plus, the Yankees have a pitching advantage with the ever reliable Clarke Schmidt taking the ball. The righty owns a 3.15 ERA over 20 innings and boasts a career-best 10 K/9 this season. He should find success against Oakland’s swing-happy offense.

I’m backing the Yankees -1.5 on the run line at even money. The Bombers failed to cover the run line in the first two games of this series, but the matchup is favorable in the third game of this four-game set.

Pick: Yankees -1.5 +100