MLB Opening Pitch: Zerillo's expert picks, odds, preview for Tuesday 4/30

Yankees vs. Orioles

Tuesday, April 30, 6:35 p.m. ET, YES | MASN

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Nestor Cortes vs. Dean Kremer

I highlighted Cortes last week, noting that his underlying indicators this season (2.53 xERA, 3.86 xFIP) are very similar to those from his breakout 2022 campaign (2.70 xERA, 3.63 xFIP). His injury-marred 2023 season (3.66 xERA, 4.84 xFIP) represents the outlier over the past three years.

Cortes has posted a Stuff+ north of 100 in consecutive starts (104 in both 2022 and 2023), and his 95 season-long figure is misrepresenting his current form. Moreover, Cortes is showing improved command in 2024 with a 3.5% walk rate, which is half his career average (7.1%).

Cortes has a projected FIP range of 3.87 to 4.15 for the remainder of the season. He currently owns a 3.86 xFIP and posted a 3.63 xFIP in 2022; he should pitch toward the more optimistic end of that projection range and he is the superior starting pitcher in this matchup compared to Dean Kremer (projected FIP range of (4.05 to 4.49), who I'd project toward the more pessimistic end of his range (4.93 xERA in 2023; 5.43 in 2024).

The Yankees should also have a sizable bullpen edge on Tuesday. Orioles closer Craig Kimbrel is dealing with back tightness, though he hasn't yet been placed on the injured list.

High-leverage relievers Yennier Cano and Danny Coulombe have also worked consecutive days (and three time in five days), leaving Jacob Webb, Cionel Perez, Mike Baumann, Keegan Akin and Yohan Ramirez available behind Kremer. Akin has looked explosive this season (29.4% K-BB%, 1.60 xERA, 2.62 xFIP) and has pitched multiple innings in four of 13 appearances — but otherwise, it's a shaky group.

Offensively, these lineups are relatively comparable. However, the Yankees own a crucial defensive advantage worth about 1.75% to my projected line. New York ranks fourth in MLB with 18 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) while Baltimore is tied for 13th with three DRS.

Bet: Yankees F5 Moneyline (-130 or better) | Yankees Full-Game Moneyline (-121 or better)

Twins vs. White Sox

Tuesday, April 30, 7:40 p.m. ET, Bally Sports | NBCS CH

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Simeon Woods Richardson vs. Michael Soroka

Simeon Woods Richardson is a 23-year-old, former top-50 pick who's been involved in separate deals for veteran pitchers (Marcus Stroman and Jose Berrios). He's looked sharp in a pair of starts against the Tigers and White Sox and will face the latter again on Tuesday.

In those outings, he posted a 90 Stuff+ despite flashing an above-average slider (103) and curveball(101). Still, he has a below-average fastball, and the Stuff+ rating on his changeup (93) has declined significantly compared to last season (160). He's also throwing the changeup less frequently.

Woods Richardson has a projected FIP range of 4.38 to 4.63 for the remainder of the 2024 season. Still, he's showing two above-average pitches (thrown 35% of the time combined), has the potential for a third and has excellent command, which is his carrying tool (55 current, 60 future grade) — he's on a clear upward trajectory.

Conversely, Michael Soroka has issued more walks (17) than strikeouts (13) in four of six starts this season and earned every bit of his 6.83 ERA (7.26 xERA). After his extensive injury history, projections (4.45 to 5.08) view Soroka as a replacement-level arm.

Bet: Twins F5 Moneyline (-166 or better)

Phillies vs. Angels

Tuesday, April 30, 9:38 p.m. ET, Bally Sports | NBCSP+

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Spencer Turnbull vs. Tyler Anderson

Spencer Turnbull will get one more turn through the Phillies rotation before shifting to the bullpen to accommodate Taijuan Walker. We've bet on Turnbull consistently (until betting against him last time out) and identified early on that he's far better than his 2024 projections (range of 4.03 to 4.50) might indicate.

Thanks to a 108 Stuff+, Turnbull has posted a 3.18 ERA, 3.28 xFIP and 3.57 botERA after adding a sweeper and modifying both his fastball and curveball.

Turnbull has a career-best 18.9% strikeout minus walk rate (K-BB%), but he's only surpassed 57 innings in a season once (2019), and the Phillies would like to save some bullets for the stretch run.

Tyler Anderson has been fortunate to preserve a 1.78 ERA, thanks to a 94.9% strand rate and a .181 BABIP (compared to league averages of 71.4% and .289, respectively). Anderson has a 4.55 xERA, a 5.09 xFIP and a 6.6% K-BB% — similar to his metrics from an abysmal 2023 (4.96 xERA, 5.52 xFIP, 8.7% K-BB%), when he posted a 5.43 ERA. Regression is looming.

Bet: Phillies F5 Moneyline (-140 or better)

Braves vs. Mariners

Tuesday, April 30, 9:40 p.m. ET, MLB Network

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Reynaldo Lopez vs. Luis Castillo

Under the hood, Luis Castillo looks as good as ever in 2024, with a career-best 24% K-BB% through six starts, thanks to a career-low 4.8% walk rate (average 8.1%).

Reynaldo Lopez has performed brilliantly in his return as a starting pitcher (0.72 ERA, 2.62 xERA), but his K-BB% (17.4%) and xFIP (3.69) are in the same range from the past few seasons. Pitching models aren't impressed either, putting Lopez at a 97 Stuff+ and 99 Location+, with one above-average offering (112 on his slider).

Last season, as a reliever with the White Sox, Lopez posted a 125 Stuff+ rating, had three above-average offerings, and a 134 Stuff+ figure on his slider. He posted a 118 Stuff+ rating in 2022.

He's not throwing as hard (95.2 mph) as he used to (98.3 mph last season), which explains the steep drop-off in pitching models (the slider has dipped from 88 mph to 84.2 mph).

As a result, Lopez should perform much more closely to his 2024 projections (projected FIP range of 3.52 to 4.10) than pitching like an ace moving forward.

Bet: Mariners F5 Moneyline (+100 or better)

Zerillo's Bets for Tuesday, April 30

• Minnesota Twins F5 (-150, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -166)
• New York Yankees F5 (-120, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -130)
• New York Yankees F5 (-115, 0.5u) at Superbook (bet to -121)
• Philadelphia Phillies F5 (-132, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -140)
• Seattle Mariners F5 (+100, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +100)