NBA betting: Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game 1 prediction, odds, pick for Saturday 5/4

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Odds

Saturday, May 4, 7 p.m. ET, TNT

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves are coming off a physically dominant sweep of the Phoenix Suns in the first round. Minnesota was able to dominate the offensive glass and paint and force the Suns into a lot of turnovers. But they will not have the same physical edge over the Nuggets.

The Wolves had an offensive rebound rate of 36% against the Suns in round one. In last years’ first-round matchup, the Timberwolves rebounded just 21.6% of their misses against the Nuggets. They also were completely unable to create extra possessions via turnovers in that series, as their defense forced turnovers on just 12% of their possessions. The Wolves will not be able to just bully the Nuggets into silly turnovers like they did to the Suns.

It’s hard to overstate the massive difference in mental toughness between a team like the Phoenix Suns and the Denver Nuggets, so the Timberwolves are going to have to actually execute offense at a high level to win this series. You’re not going to grab 40% of your misses against a Nikola Jokić-led defense.

Sharp money has come in on the Timberwolves at this series price, and it feels like everybody is higher on this team this year, but I think people need to take a breath and realize this is practically the same roster the Nuggets disposed of in five games last season. The Wolves have definitely gotten better and they do have a better chance to upset the Nuggets this year, but its important for bettors and fans to recalibrate their expectations a little in my opinion.

Denver Nuggets

With all that being said, the Nuggets objectively looked awful in their first-round series against the Lakers, and the series being just five games was not reflective of how close it really was. The Nuggets were extremely lazy with the ball and lazy in transition defense, and it allowed the Lakers to compete in every game.

They locked in during the second half of multiple games and showed they do have that switch to flip, but they are going to have to be locked in for all four quarters against this Wolves team. You can get away with taking possessions off against a bad Lakers squad. but you do not have the same luxury against the No. 1-ranked Timberwolves defense.

I’d argue the Nuggets' offense is due for some positive 3-point regression after shooting just 31.4% from 3 in round one. They shot 39.7% from 3 in last year’s series vs. the Timberwolves, and I’d expect Denver to have plenty of chances to knock down 3s with Rudy Gobert camping out near the rim for most of the series.

The Timberwolves are going to dare Aaron Gordon to beat them from deep, and I’d argue he needs to have a big series here if the Nuggets want to take care of business. Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope need to punish the Timberwolves from deep.

Additionally, the Nuggets' starters need to dominate their minutes, as they will almost certainly lose their bench minutes by a large margin. The Timberwolves have a very solid bench rotation between Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and the Nuggets' bench is much worse than it was last year now that Bruce Brown is gone.

Denver's starting five had a +13.0 net-rating this season, while Denver's starters were at +9.0. Beating the Wolves' starters with margin will be pivotal for the Nuggets.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets

Betting Pick & Prediction

I like the over 207.5 here, as I expect both teams to come out with energy off three days of rest. Four of the five games in last year’s series went over this number and the series averaged 220 PPG. I’d argue the Wolves' offense has gotten much better over the past year, and I expect them to have a little bit more offensive firepower this time around.

Take the over 207.5 at this low number and play it up to 210.

Pick: Over 207.5