NBA best bets: Cavs vs. Magic Game 7 expert picks for Sunday 5/5

Magic vs. Cavaliers

Sunday, May 5, 1 p.m. ET, ABC
Cavs 1H -2 (-105, DraftKings)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

The Cavaliers started this series up 2-0 in their first two home games, and now they find the series tied 3-3 heading into a Game 7 after losing to the Magic in Orlando, 103-96, in Game 6. Donovan Mitchell had himself a monster 50-point performance on 22-of-36 shooting, but the rest of the Cavaliers — featured and role players alike — failed to contribute in any meaningful way, combining for just 46 points.

At home, I expect a much better performance from the rest of Cleveland's squad, but I'm targeting the first half for a few reasons. Namely, I like the narrative angle of the Cavs starting out hot off the disappointing loss. But beyond that, there's a trend I found on BetLabs that fits a first-half play a lot better than the full game.

Home teams in Game 7 of the first round are 15-8-1 ATS in the first half (24.7% ROI) going back to 2005. If we include the second round for a larger sample size, the higher seed is still 26-16-1 (18.3% ROI). And off a loss, those teams are 17-7 ATS in the first half.

I like the Cavs to come out firing in the first two frames.

Pick: Cavs 1H -2 (-105)

Cavs 1H ML (DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

I'm expecting a strong start from the Cleveland Cavaliers for a home Round 1 Game 7, where the home teams historically are 23-7, according to our Matt Moore.

I think the Cavs should win this, but at a minimum, a bounce-back first half is on the table.

The Cavs have won every home game this series, and led at halftime each time. I'm taking them straight up in the first half, and I'd take them to win outright afterward if it's a close game. But young teams like the Magic typically don't win in this spot.

Pick: Cavs 1H ML

Cavs -7.5 (+180, FanDuel)

By Maltman

I went into this game really wanting to bet a margin of within seven points either way. The first four games of this series were blowouts, but the last two have been close, and I figured the smart bet was on that to happen again.

Since 2004, we have had eight first-round series where Games 5 and 6 were decided by seven or fewer points leading up to a Game 7. In each of those cases, Games 5 and 6 were split, just like this series.

For those eight series, when the two teams met for Game 7, the final margin was within seven points one time (the much discussed Spurs/Clippers series that has been brought up this week as one of the best series of all time). The other seven were all decided by at least eight points, and the average margin of victory was 18.4 points. In those seven, the home team won five times.

Charlotte/Miami in 2016 and New Orleans/Miami in 2004 look a lot like this series. In both of those, the first four games were all won by the home team, and they each featured some low-scoring games and blowouts. In both, Miami, the more experienced team, won Game 7.

I'd really like to bet the Magic to win here, but the data say the Cavs probably pull this one out somehow at home, and that it isn't as close. I'm betting Cleveland -7.5 at +180 on FanDuel for .35u (would bet down to +160).

Pick: Cavs -7.5 (+180)