MLB best bets, picks and predictions for Sunday 5/5

Brewers vs. Cubs

Sunday, May 5, 2:20 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Freddy Peralta Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+120, DraftKings)

By Tony Sartori

Milwaukee hands the ball to right-hander Freddy Peralta on Sunday, and he should be a good candidate to back. Putting together a brilliant start to the campaign, Peralta is 3-0 with a 3.21 ERA and 0.86 WHIP through his first six starts.

The strongest part of the right-hander's game is his ability to rack up the punchouts. He ranks in the 93rd percentile or higher in both Whiff% and K%.

This strikeout success could continue against Chicago, a team that ranks 18th in the league in K%. That ranking drops even further (20th) when you isolate its performance against right-handed pitching.

Therefore, it is not surprising that Peralta carved up this lineup in the last meeting with 10 strikeouts in under six innings of work. Through 85 career plate appearances against Peralta, this current Cubs lineup possesses a fade-worthy 35.3 K% and 39.2 Whiff%.

Pick: Freddy Peralta Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+120)

Brewers vs. Cubs

Brewers ML (-120, BetMGM)

By Sean Paul

The Cubs' rotation has been among the best in baseball this year, and Javier Assad is one of the main reasons for the hot start. Assad is in his first full season as a starter, posting a 1.97 ERA in 32.2 innings with 27 strikeouts.

While Assad has pitched great, the one thing he lacks is length. He's thrown more than six innings in just one start, which is a huge problem considering the Cubs' bullpen is the worst in baseball.

Meanwhile, Freddy Peralta takes the hill for Milwaukee, and he's quickly morphing into one of the premier pitchers in MLB. The 27-year-old Brewers ace ranks in the 93rd percentile in Whiff rate and 95th percentile in K rate, per Statcast.

The biggest reason for the Brewers' scalding start, however, is the lineup. Milwaukee ranks second in wRC+ at 118, only behind the Dodgers.

I'm fully on the Peralta contending for NL Cy Young Award train, and Assad looks like the ideal fade candidate. He's throwing well, but his underlying numbers show some regression is due.

I love the Brewers as narrow favorites and would be comfortable playing them to -150.

Pick: Brewers ML (-120)

Braves vs. Dodgers

Sunday, May 5, 4:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Braves ML (-126, FanDuel)

By Tanner McGrath

James Paxton is a ticking time bomb.

His 3.51 ERA looks good, but it’s buoyed by a .253 BABIP and an 82% strand rate, marks that should regress toward MLB averages (.300 and 72%, respectively). As a result, his expected ERA and FIP are north of 6.00.

His arm looks dead. His fastball velocity is down two ticks year over year (95 mph to 93), and his Stuff+ rating has dropped from 89 to 75. Paxton can’t force whiffs or chases with such weak stuff, so he’s forced to nibble around the edges, where he’s walked more batters (22) than he’s struck out (15) across his first 25 innings.

Even worse, Paxton can’t induce weak contact, ranking in the 14th percentile of qualified pitchers in hard-hit rate allowed (47%).

He’s the most overvalued pitcher in MLB, and the regression train should pull into Paxton Station against the hard-hitting Braves, who lead MLB in hard-hit rate (46%) and average exit velocity (91 mph).

Also, five of Atlanta’s top six hitters are righties, and Paxton is not immune to platoon splits (career 3.42 expected FIP against lefties, 3.70 against righties).

The Dodgers boast a similarly elite lineup, but Max Fried is uber-undervalued despite his pedestrian 4.02 ERA. A blowup opening-day appearance against the Diamondbacks (4 ⅓ IP, 7 ER, 10 H) has inflated his numbers. But since then, he’s allowed only four earned runs across four starts, most recently shutting out the Marlins (complete game) and the Mariners (six innings) with 13 strikeouts to only two walks.

He’s developed a top-notch sinker (107 Stuff+), helping the lefty to one of the league’s best batted-ball profiles (67% ground-ball rate, 99th percentile; 25% hard-hit rate, 96th percentile; 66% ground-ball rate, 96th percentile).

It’s also worth mentioning that the Dodgers project slightly worse against southpaws. Since the start of last year, they’ve posted a league-leading 131 wRC+ against righties compared to a “meager” ninth-ranked 125 wRC+ against lefties, with five left-handed hitters in the lineup — helping explain Fried’s 2.68 ERA in 44 lifetime innings against them. The last time Fried battled the Dodgers, last September, he pitched seven shutout frames with 10 strikeouts, two walks and three hits in a 6-3 Braves win at Chavez Ravine.

I make the bullpen matchup a wash, and although the Dodgers have a decent defensive advantage, it won’t matter with washed-up Paxton toeing the rubber.

So, give me the Braves at any number in the ultimate Paxton fade.

Pick: Braves ML (-126)