NBA betting: Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game 2 prediction, odds, pick for 5/6

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Odds

Monday, May 6, 10 p.m. ET, TNT

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves were elite at preventing Nikola Jokić from dominating as a passer in Game 1. Jokic finished with nine assists, but it was a bit misleading as he only had 12 potential assists in the game.

The Wolves limited Jokic by essentially daring Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon to beat them. In all of the screening actions involving Jokic and Murray, the Wolves had Jokić's defender stick to him and never help off to inhibit Murray. Behind all of those actions, they had Rudy Gobert roaming in the paint and leaving Gordon wide open in the corner to prevent easy rim looks from Jokic and Murray.

Their strategy worked, as Murray finished with 17 points and Gordon got absolutely nothing at the rim, finishing with just nine points. Jokic scored 32 but it was not a great performance by his standards, finishing with seven turnovers while shooting just 2-of-9 on 3s.

The Nuggets were held to an offensive rating of 109 and they grabbed four total offensive rebounds in the game. That offensive rebounding output was their worst rebounding game since New Year's Day 2023.

Overall, the Wolves' defense was elite and they showed they have a path to disrupting Denver’s offensive flow. Gobert is a top-five defender of all time and he is going to win Defensive Player of the Year on Tuesday; he needs to be getting more flowers for how elite he has been. If Gobert continues to play at this level defensively, the Wolves are going to have a good chance to pull off an upset in this series.

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Denver Nuggets

On the flip side of the ball, we saw the Nuggets struggle to stop Anthony Edwards, as he went for 43 points on an efficient 17-of-29 from the field. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is clearly a step slow and being bothered by the ankle injury he suffered in Round 1. Caldwell-Pope is also a bit too small to defend Edwards, so we saw the Nuggets go to Gordon on Edwards later in the game. Gordon has also looked a step slow this postseason and he does not have the foot speed to consistently stay in front of Edwards.

All of this is causing me to expect Christian Braun to receive more minutes, as he looked like the most capable Nuggets defender on Edwards in Game 1. Braun led the bench in minutes with 19 and I’d expect him to see closer to 25 minutes in Game 2. I’ll be taking his points prop over 4.5, as I expect him to get some wide open shots once again.

The Nuggets' defense allowed the Wolves to score 107 points in the half-court but they did a good job of limiting 3-pointers and forcing the Wolves to beat them from the mid-range. The Wolves had a rim attempt rate of 28% and a 3-point attempt rate of 31%, attempting 41% of their shots from mid-range. The Wolves shot 56% on “long mid-range” looks, according to Cleaning the Glass. They also shot 42.3% from 3 as a team and 76% at the rim.

I’d expect there to be some negative 3-point regression from the Wolves considering it is hard to expect Mike Conley, Karl-Anthony Towns and Naz Reid to all shoot over 50% from 3 again. The Nuggets' priority needs to be disrupting Edwards, and I think if they can turn Edwards into a passer a bit more they should improve in Game 2.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets

Betting Pick & Prediction

I like the Nuggets -5.5 here, as i expect much more urgency out of them now that they are down 1-0. I also think the Nuggets will get progressively better offensively as they go through the series since they have maybe the smartest basketball player ever in Jokic.

Jokic will start to find some answers to the Wolves' defensive scheme and will progressively improve throughout the series. Expect a focused effort from Denver and a cover in Game 2.

Pick: Nuggets -5.5