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The latest Giants vs. Phillies odds for Saturday's contest at Citizens Bank Park have the Phillies installed as -198 favorites on the moneyline, with an over/under of 8 (-115o / -105u). For my Giants vs. Phillies prediction, I will be looking at the total.
Let's dive into my MLB betting preview and get into my Giants vs. Phillies pick for Monday, May 6.
Phillies vs. Giants Odds
Monday, May 6, 4:05 p.m. ET, NBCS-BA
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| +1.5 -130 |
8 -115o / -105u |
+166 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| -1.5 +108 |
8 -115o / -105u |
-198 |
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
Philadelphia Phillies
Right-hander Zack Wheeler takes the mound for Philadelphia on Monday afternoon, and he is usually one of the best arms to back in baseball. Once again off to a dominant start this season, Wheeler boasts a 1.91 ERA and 0.92 WHIP through his first seven starts.
His underlying metrics suggest regression is unlikely, as the right-hander ranks in the 90th percentile or higher in pitching run value, xERA and xBA. This success is likely to continue against San Francisco, a team that Wheeler has posted a 3.26 ERA and 0.98 WHIP against over the past six meetings.
Following Wheeler is a bullpen that is primed for positive regression. Despite ranking 24th in the league in ERA, the Phillies' relief pitching ranks fourth in FIP and sixth in xFIP.
San Francisco Giants
That pitching staff is likely not going to have much of an issue shutting down San Francisco. Entering this matchup, the Giants ranks in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.
Those struggles at the dish are likely to continue against Wheeler, a pitcher whom this current lineup possesses a mere .230 xBA, .308 xSLG and .276 xwOBA against through 97 combined plate appearances.
The one bright spot for this team entering Monday's matchup is that right-hander Mason Black is slated to make his MLB debut. Black is a former third-round pick who has been tearing up AAA this season. Through six starts, the right-hander is 2-1 with a 1.01 ERA and 0.90 WHIP.
Phillies vs. Giants
Betting Pick & Prediction
Philadelphia's lineup is the biggest concern when taking the Under in this matchup. However, not only is Black a highly-touted prospect who has been dominating in AAA, he is also a guy whom this Phillies lineup has never faced before.
That means it will likely take a few rotations through the batting order to figure him out. On the other hand, I fully trust Wheeler to shut down this underwhelming Giants lineup once again.
Even if Black wavers in his debut, I could see Philadelphia's pitching staff holding San Francisco to three or fewer runs.
Pick: Under 8 (-105 at FanDuel | Play to -110)
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