MLB Opening Pitch: Expert picks, odds, predictions for Monday 5/6

Angels vs. Pirates

Monday, May 6, 6:40 p.m. ET, SportsNet PT

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Tyler Anderson (LAA) vs. Mitch Keller (PIT)

A declining fastball is the most significant difference between Mitch Keller in 2023 (4.21 ERA, 4.18 xERA, 18.8% K-BB%) and Keller in 2024 (5.18 ERA, 5.04 xERA, 3.97 xFIP).

Keller's pitch modeling metrics (100 Stuff+, 100 Location+) are down compared to last season (104 and 103, respectively), but that's mostly from throwing fastballs at reduced velocity (down from 95.2 to 94.2 mph vs. 2023; Stuff+ down from 100 to 90) — his secondary stuff remains intact.

Keller's hard-hit rate is up significantly (from 35.6% to 45.9%) because the fastballs are getting trounced (.534 xSLG on his four-seamer, .458 on the cutter, .451 on the sinker compared to marks of .343, .459, and .341, respectively last season).

Keller's K-BB% (strikeout minus walk rate) has dipped from 18.8% to 13.4% year over year (he carried an 11.4% mark with a 4.18 xERA and 3.99 xFIP in 2022). However, his called-strike plus whiff rate (CSW%) is 28%, compared to 28.3% last season and 25.8% in 2022, with a whiff rate splitting the difference between those seasons. He's having trouble finishing hitters.

On the surface, Tyler Anderson (2.23 ERA, 4.72 xERA, 4.82 xFIP, 8.7% K-BB%) is showing similar underlying indicators to last season (4.96 xERA, 4.82 xFIP, 8.2% K-BB%) but he's also carrying a career-best whiff rate (13.2%) and showing improved pitching modeling metrics (94 Stuff+, 103 Location) vs. 2023 (91 Stuff+, 99 Location+). However, his low BABIP (.194) and high strand rate (90.9%) should eventually cave in.

After downgrading Keller by nearly half a run and upgrading Anderson by a similar amount, I still like the Pirates in both halves of this matchup.

Pittsburgh should continue to perform as a league-average offense against southpaws (110 wRC+ this season), and the Angels about 10% below league average vs. righties (97 wRC+ this season, but now without Mike Trout).

I view the Buccos as the better team defensively and on the basepaths, and they also have a severe bullpen edge (14th vs. 24th in xFIP; 10th vs. 24th in K-BB%; 4th vs. 22nd in Stuff+).

Bets: Pirates F5 Moneyline (-147 or better) | Pirates Full-Game Moneyline (-145 or better) | Over 8 (-118) or 8.5 ( +100 or better)

Brewers vs. Royals

Monday, May 6, 7:40 p.m. ET, BSWI

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Bryse Wilson (MIL) vs. Cole Ragans (KC)

The Royals have a clear starting pitching advantage on Monday, with Cole Ragans meeting lofty expectations (3.44 ERA, 3.39 xFIP, 20.8% K-BB%). However, Milwaukee saved all of its key relievers on Sunday and should have a substantial bullpen edge, by nearly a full run on projected ERA.

Milwaukee's bullpen ranks 12th in xFIP, 16th in K-BB%, and 19th in Stuff+ this season. After deploying long relievers on Sunday, it projects as the third-best bullpen in my model (behind Philadelphia and San Francisco) for Monday's 10-game slate.

Kansas City ranks 28th, 29th and 30th in the same three performance indicators and projects as the 19th-best bullpen of the 20 teams in action on Monday.

Offensively, Milwaukee has performed much better against righties (123 wRC+, 2nd) than lefties (85 wRC+, 23rd), but if this game is tied with relievers on the mound, the Brewers should have the advantage.

Alternatively, or in addition, consider a live bet on Milwaukee with a close eye on Ragans' pitch count.

Bet: Brewers Full-Game Moneyline (+122 or better)

Mets vs. Cardinals

Monday, May 6, 7:45 p.m. ET, SNY

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Sean Manaea (NYM) vs. Kyle Gibson (STL)

I set this total at around 8.8 runs.

I'm a bit worried about Sean Manaea, who has posted a 16:14 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his past four starts, alongside declining velocity and pitch modeling metrics (91 Stuff+, 101 Location+ in 2023 vs. 86 Stuff+, 95 Location+ in 2024).

Manaea owns a 3.07 ERA, compared to a 4.72 xERA and 4.76 xFIP, and his walk rate (14.1%) is more than double his career average (6.7%).

Kyle Gibson (3.79 ERA, 5.52 xERA, 4.27 xFIP) is coming off his best start of the season (7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 9 K) against the Tigers. Still, he's also experienced a velocity dip, a decline in pitch modeling metrics and K-BB%, and has benefitted from both a low BABIP (.225) and a high strand rate (78.7%).

Both teams may also need innings from these starters to preserve their bullpens.

New York deployed six relievers in a 10-inning heartbreaker on Sunday. Reed Garrett and Sean-Reid Foley worked for the second consecutive day, and Jorge Lopez pitched for the fourth time in six days.

The Cardinals used three different relievers for multi-inning stints on Sunday.

Bet: Over 8 (8.5, -105 or better)

Rangers vs. Athletics

Monday, May 6, 9:40 p.m. ET, BSSW

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Andrew Heaney (TEX) vs. Alex Wood (OAK)

Surprisingly, the Athletics have the better offense against left-handed pitching this season, ranking 13th against southpaws (103 wRC+) compared to 22nd for the Rangers (92 wRC+).

The inverse is true against right-handed pitching, with the Rangers (110 wRC+, 7th) and A's (96 wRC+, 20th) rating closer to expectations.

I'd still project Texas as an above-average team and Oakland as a below-average team against either handedness of pitcher.

Andrew Heaney (5.10 ERA, 4.10 xERA, 4.65 xFIP, 13.6% K-BB%) looks the same as he was in Texas last season (5.15 ERA, 4.55 xERA, 4.58 xFIP, 13.6% K-BB%).

Alex Wood (6.32 ERA, 6.05 xERA, 5.09 xFIP, 7.8% K-BB%) is also showing similar indicators to 2023 (4.67 xERA, 5.14 xFIP, 7.5% K-BB%), but he's permitted a significant increase in hard contact (48% up from 37.4%).

The Rangers bullpen has the better K-BB%, but Oakland leads in xFIP, Stuff+ and my ERA projection for Monday's matchup.

As a result, I see a bigger advantage for Texas in the first half (projected -154) than over nine innings (projected -136), which could include ace reliever Mason Miller (0.80 xERA, 0.91 xFIP, 46.3% K-BB%), who hasn't pitched since May 1.

Bet: Rangers F5 Moneyline (-141 or better)

Zerillo's Bets for Monday, May 6

• Milwaukee Brewers (+133, 0.5u) at Superbook (bet to +122)
• New York Mets / St. Louis Cardinals, Over 8 (-110, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to 8.5, -105)
• Pittsburgh Pirates F5 (-132, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -147)
• Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-130, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -145)
• Pittsburgh Pirates / Los Angeles Angels, Over 8 (-105, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -118 or 8.5, +100)
• Texas Rangers F5 (-135, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -141)