NBA best bets: 9 expert picks for Monday 5/6

Pacers vs. Knicks

Monday, May 6, 7:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Donte DiVincenzo Over 15.5 Points (DraftKings)

By Chris Baker

DiVincenzo has averaged 20.3 FGA in three games against the Pacers this season and is averaging 24 PPG. He went over this number in 2/3 games and actually had a 38 point explosion against them back in December. Keep in mind that the Knicks still had guys like Julius Randle, Alec Burks, and Bojan Bogdanovic soaking up some offensive usage in some of this sample size. All of the other offensive creators on this Knicks team are injured and in my opinion DiVincenzo is 1B to Jalen Brunson.

They need Donte to step up and this is a great matchup for him as the Pacers will likely try and hide Tyrese Haliburton on him while Nembhard chases Brunson around. Haliburton is one of the worst defenders in the NBA and I expect Donte to exploit him off the dribble all series long. Donte should be a bit more fresh than the rest of the Knick rotation as his minutes actually trended down throughout the 76er series until the final victory in game 6. He actually only averaged 31 MPG in the 76er series but is entering this Pacers series off an elite 23/4/7 performance against Philly. Donte played all 48 minutes in that game and absolutely answered the call so i expect his minutes to be closer to 40 than to 30 in this game.

Trust Donte to clear this number at 15.5 and call me crazy but I think betting him 100-1 to be the top point scorer in this series isn’t the worst idea.

Pick: Donte DiVincenzo Over 15.5 Points

Pacers vs. Knicks

Knicks to be leading at end of every quarter and Knicks -15.5 (FanDuel) 

By Maltman

This series is likely going to be defined by runs. When the Knicks are getting offensive rebounds or are going to the free throw line, two things they excel in, the Pacers offense will be stuck in the half court, where they are much worse. But when the Pacers get defensive rebounds and manage to get out in transition, they will score well, and likely keep these games close, and perhaps win.

Game 1 is not a good chance for that with the Pacers. We already saw them show up unprepared on the road last round. The Knicks relentless attacking of the glass takes some getting used to, and with the Pacers being a bottom 5 defensive rebounding team, they are not prepared. I could see this getting ugly early, and the Knicks running away with it, especially at home. This is a huge adjustment series for the Pacers from the last round.

I like the Knicks to be leading at the end of every quarter because they will pull ahead, and they are the team that keeps their foot on the peddle. Betting Knicks to lead at end of every quarter at +166 at .35u on Fanduel (would bet down to +150).

Since 2001, 7 teams have had at least a 35% offensive rebound rate and at least a 75% defensive rebound rate in game 1 of round 2. Three of those 7 teams won by at least 19 points. The Knicks hit those benchmarks in 2/3 against the Pacers this year, and they are an even better offensive rebounding team now then they were during the regular season. Betting Knicks -15.5 at +350 on Fanduel (-15 on Fanatics) for .15u.

Pick: Knicks to be leading at end of every quarter and Knicks -15.5

Pacers vs. Knicks

Knicks Win Game 1/Knicks to Win Series (FanDuel)

By Bryan Fonseca

I think the Knicks will win Game 1, and I think they will win this series.

Seems pretty simple, yes?

The Pacers, I think, are underrated in this series. They're a stylistic match-up problem and like to run up and down the floor at a pace the Knicks will try to limit. But I generally lean with the defensive upside team in the playoffs.

The Knicks are the second best rebounding team in the playoffs after the Celtics, and they'll likely be first following this series given Kristaps Porzingis absence.

If the Knicks could slow Indiana down and continue crashing the glass at the rate they have been, I see them winning in five or six — leaning the latter.

Pick: Knicks Win Game 1/Knicks to Win Series

Pacers vs. Knicks

Aaron Nesmith over 12.5 Points and 3+ 3s (FanDuel)

By Joe Dellera

Aaron Nesmith has been integral to the Pacers’ rotation throughout the season and now the Playoffs, especially after moving Buddy Hield and the injury to Bennedict Mathurin.

His history against the Knicks speaks for itself. In three games, he has played at least 30 minutes in each and has gone 7-for-11, 3-for-6 and 3-for-7 from deep. Nesmith played significant minutes during the Pacers' first-round series against Milwaukee.

He's averaging 11 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 2.0/6.5 (3PM/3PA) in 35 minutes per game this postseason. Nesmith is a solid defensive option, so he should not get played off the court.

Nesmith’s points prop is set at 12.5. This is a number he's cleared in five of six games against the Knicks the last two seasons and I’ll also play 3+ 3s (+200, FanDuel), which he’s recorded in 4/6 against the Knicks.

The Knicks play at a slower pace; however, they allow their opponents to take 3s and Nesmith is someone that should not demand an intense defensive assignment such as Josh Hart or OG Anunoby.

I like Nesmith to exceed 12.5 Points.

Pick: Aaron Nesmith over 12.5 Points and 3+ 3s

Pacers vs. Knicks

Donte DiVincenzo under 2.5 threes (FanDuel)

By Jim Turvey

The Knicks and Pacers kick off their second round series on Monday, and my favorite play is Donte DiVicenzo (DDV here on out) under on his threes made.

There's a few outs to this play. For one, DDV's minutes and usage dropped notably in the first round. After establishing himself as a 35-minute, 10-three point field goal attempt player in the second half of the season, DDV, saw those numbers drop to 32 minutes and 6.5 threes per game against Philly. And that's inflated by Game 6. He had four games in which he played less than 30 minutes, and he cleared three 2.5 threes total only twice in six games.

Of course, his best game came most recently, but there's both good and bad to that. He may have re-established himself in the rotation, but he's also "fresh" off a 48-minute outing that likely robbed him of at least some of his shooting legs for Monday.

There's also the fact that this new opponent, the Indiana Pacers, chase opposing teams off the three-point line better than anyone else in the league. They gave up both the fewest makes, and the fewest takes from beyond the arc this season, and that didn't change in round one.

I also like under 3.5 even to heavy juice, which is available at other books as well.

Pick: Donte DiVincenzo under 2.5 threes

Pacers vs. Knicks

Pascal Siakam over 24.5 points and assists (DraftKings)

By Matt Moore

The Knicks like to trap the ballhandler in pick and roll coverage often with the physicality and athleticism. Siakam is both perfect release valve and distributor as the roller. When he screens, he can catch on the short roll to kick to corner shooters or finish at the rim. When he's the ball handler, he can get down hill or is tall enough to pass over double teams to release valves or the weak side shooters.

Siakam went under this by 3 points+assists or fewer in five of his last eight matchups with the Knicks and went over in the other three. In those he missed, he played fewer than 37 minutes. He'll go 40+ in these games and I expect him to have big games vs. what is a very-slightly overrated Knicks defense.

Pick: Pascal Siakam over 24.5 points and assists

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets

Monday, May 6, 10 p.m. ET, TNT
Nuggets -5.5 (FanDuel)

By Matt Moore

I'm not going to overcomplicate this. Top two seeds at home in Game 2 after a loss are 48-11 SU, 37-21 ATS, 14-3 SU and ATS since 2018-19. When those teams win, they are 37-10-1, a whopping 79% ATS. These teams win and when they win, they cover.

Minnesota is tough and can win this game. But they punched Denver in the mouth after the Nuggets screwed around with the Lakers for five games. I like to think Denver has learned its lesson. If they have, they win this game, and if they win this game, they cover. If they haven't, well, this will be a short series and a very profitable one for folks with Wolves futures or series bets.

I'll bet on that and that we get a 1-1 split headed to Minnesota.

Pick: Nuggets -5.5

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets

Nickiel Alexander-Walker over 1.5 3PM (+114, DraftKings)

By Matt Moore

Walker went 1-of-5 in Game 1 but got great looks consistently. He played 20 minutes and a was a team-worst -16 because he was on the floor for the Reggie Jackson 1st quarter Experience. The Wolves won't go away from him, and I expect him to get more corner three opportunities That's a key trigger shot for the Nuggets; you can find corner threes against their defensive scheme. The Nuggets will likely play with a little more aggression vs. Anthony Edwards, leaving those corner threes slightly more open.

Pick: Nickiel Alexander-Walker over 1.5 3PM (+114)

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets

Nuggets -5.5 (FanDuel)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

The Nuggets started out slow in Game 1 and Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray had trouble with the Wolves physicality—something I expected coming into the series, but not to this degree and not so immediately. But this is a desperation spot for the Nuggets and I expect them to make adjustments to get Jokic more of a scoring threat and Murray away from Anthony Edwards who played great defense on him in Game 1. Both combined for 17-39 shooting—just 43.6 percent.

This is also a historical spot for playoff teams off an upset loss. Since 2020-21, teams that were favored by four or more points in the previous game, but lost are 37-15 ATS in the next game (37 percent ROI) including 5-1 this season. I’ll lay the points with Denver in a bounce back spot.

Pick: Nuggets -5.5