MLB best bets: Expert picks and predictions for Monday 5/6

Mets vs. Cardinals

Monday, May 6, 7:45 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Over 8 (-115, FanDuel)

By Nick Martin

No lineup in baseball has underachieved most preseason projections more so than the Cardinals, who own a wRC+ of only 83 this season. The Mets haven't been overly productive recently either, with a wRC+ of 86. The recent form of these lineups might be part of the reason for a total lower than eight in a game featuring two starters due for significant regression.

Sean Manaea has drastically overachieved his xFIP of 4.77. He has allowed a WHIP of 1.43, including a walk-rate of 14.1%. His Stuff+ of 86 is actually down compared to last season, where he finished with an ERA of 4.44.

The Mets bullpen is fairly taxed entering this matchup. As a result, we might see Carlos Mendoza try to push for a couple extra outs from Manaea, which would likely be a problem. Since the start of 2023 Manaea has allowed a slug-rate of only .301 the first time through the order, but features more pronounced than average splits second and third time through.

Manaea has walked 11-of-54 batters this season the second time through the order. He's thrown strikes just 56% of the time with RISP, and opponents have a miss-rate of only 40% in those situations. His 75.1% strand rate is far better than his career average, despite those concerning numbers.

Kyle Gibson doesn't appear to offer much of an edge over Manaea, if any. He has pitched to an xERA of 5.58, and an xFIP of 4.28. He owns a Stuff+ of only 92. Since the start of last season opponents have hard-hit 54% of his fastballs, which is the fourth-highest mark among starters with over 75 IP.

The Mets have been the 11th-best offense this season versus right-handed pitching, with a wRC+ of 103. They own a fourth best BB/K of 0.46, and have hit to soft contact just 15.6% of the time.

Considering the starting pitching matchup, the total for this contest appears to be too low. Back the over at anything better than -120.

Pick: Over 8 (-115)

Mets vs. Cardinals

Sean Manaea Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-108, FanDuel)

By Tony Sartori

Left-hander Sean Manaea takes the mound for New York in this contest, and we will be looking at his prop market. While Manaea has had a turbulent start to his campaign, he profiles welll in the strikeout department as he ranks in the 73rd percentile in Whiff% and 56th percentile in K%.

This success is likely to continue against St. Louis, a team that has struggled mightily at the dish thus far. Entering this matchup, the Cardinals rank in the bottom four of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS and home runs.

Predictably, this lineup has also struggled at avoiding punchouts, ranking in the bottom half of the league in K%. These strikeout woes are likely to continue against Manaea, a pitcher whom this lineup possesses a fade-worthy 28.6 K% and 34.5 Whiff% against through 35 combined plate appearances.

Pick: Sean Manaea Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-108)

Rangers vs. Athletics

Monday, May 6, 9:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Rangers ML (-135, Hard Rock)

By ASA

The A's just got rocked 12-3 yesterday. Oakland certainly has shown improvement early this season and has been playing .500 ball on the year but let's not get carried away just yet. This club still has issues and here they are hosting the World Champions and we see exceptional line value here on the road favorite.

Texas is favored in the -135 range as of early Monday morning and this is strong value. What the betting markets see is an Oakland team that had been on a win streak prior to Sunday's loss, plus they see Andrew Heaney with an 0-4 record and 5.10 ERA on the season. However, Heaney has a 1.10 WHIP and has allowed only 12 hits in his last 18 innings and zero walks in his last two starts.

Oakland is starting a struggling Alex Wood here as he has a 1.98 WHIP on the season so his 6.32 ERA could easily be even higher. Wood is allowing about two baserunners per inning, and as indicated by his WHIP, he hasn't showed any signs of turning things around in his recent starts.

The Rangers are 13-9 in night games this season, and Athletics are 7-11 this season under the lights. Texas has a +24 run differential this season while Oakland has a -23 run differential this season.

Last season Oakland won 50 games and Texas won 90 games in the regular season. The value is huge here with the road team the way we see it. Rangers get the call in this one Monday.

Pick: Rangers ML (-135)