Champions League semis: PSG vs. Borussia Dortmund predictions, picks for 5/7

PSG vs. Borussia Dortmund Odds

Tuesday, May 7, 3 p.m. ET, Paramount+

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

PSG

PSG struggled to gain control or create chances in this first half of the first leg. Mbappe was getting isolated and in total for the match only had seven touches in the penalty area with three shots, all being of low quality. They also were having a bit of difficulty building out of the back as Dortmund's counter-pressing was effective at times. As you can see from the pass map below, Dortmund were willing to live with the ball being funneled to the right side of the pitch, but PSG didn't combine with Mbappe at a high rate.

The other thing that was a little concerning for PSG was their out of possession approach. They ended up with only six high turnovers and a PPDA of 10.4, which is worse than their average in Ligue 1 this season. Even if you look at the map of where their high turnovers happened, they are right on the line of what would be considered a high turnover, so it wasn't the best pressing performance from PSG when they did choose to press Dortmund.

For PSG to get by here in the second leg, they have to get back to what they were successful with against Dortmund during their two meetings in the group stage. They have to find ways to play more direct or build up with a faster pace and they have to press Dortmund effectively when they do press them high. The question is, are they going to be able to do that if Dortmund come with a park the bus, play long balls type of tactical plan?

Borussia Dortmund

What they did was learn from their previous encounters with PSG and didn’t make the same mistakes. Outside of a couple transition moments, they kept PSG and their rapid pace out of direct attacking scenarios where they were running with numbers at their back line. When they did lose the ball, they either counter pressed effectively or they quickly got back and made sure PSG didn’t outnumber them.

Jadon Sancho was amazing in that first leg and has kind of transformed Dortmund offensively with his ability to play multiple positions, drop deep in build up and be the conductor of their attack. Julian Brandt was someone that was playing this type of role, but Sancho now allows him to be more of an attacking presence and creator. Jadon Sancho had 99 touches overall for the match with 34 of them coming in the middle third of the pitch, which was the second-most on the team.

Dortmund also did a great job of not allowing PSG to deploy their deadly high press, as PSG came out with more of a passive approach after Dortmund were able to play through them a couple of times. However, it would be unwise for Dortmund to take a build out the back approach in the second leg, but rather do what they do best, which is to play in transition.

With the pace that Dortmund have and because of how successful they were with balls in behind PSG's high line, they now have the ability with a one goal lead to play direct rather than try to control the match, so it's actually a pretty good situation for them.

PSG vs Borussia Dortmund

Prediction

The situation with a one goal lead is actually a really good one for Dortmund. If this was level or they were playing from behind, they are not the best team when the match opens up and they can be exposed in transition.

They did an excellent job learning from their mistakes from the group stage against PSG and didn't allow them to utilize their pace in transition and also didn't make many costly turnovers in their own end that led to easy chances.

Even though Dortmund's underlying numbers overall this season have not been great, I think PSG are way overvalued here at home because they are in a must win scenario.

I only have PSG projected at -124, so I like the value on Dortmund +1.5 at -140.

Pick: Dortmund +1.5 (-140 via DraftKings)