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James Carey Lauder-USA TODAY Sports

Playoff Series Primer: Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars

Originally posted on The Avs Report | By Chloe Wright | Last updated 5/7/24

After convincingly dispatching the Winnipeg Jets in Round 1, the Avalanche had to wait to find out who their second-round opponents would be. After a grueling and low-scoring seven-game series, the Dallas Stars defeated the Vegas Golden Knights to advance. The second round series between the two surviving Central Division titans will begin Tuesday, May 7th, at 7:30 p.m. MT.

To prepare you for the stage where Colorado seeks to overcome its’ historic rival, Front Range Hockey has broken down the two foes for comparison. Without further ado, let’s break down these two cup favorites by position group: forwards, defensemen, and goaltenders.

Forwards

Depth vs. star power was widely expected to be the name of the game for Colorado in the first round. However, the Jets’ depth was much exaggerated. Dallas, on paper, has depth that puts Winnipeg to shame.

Dallas boasts a young and electric core of forwards, starting with team-goal leader Wyatt Johnston, who is in his second professional season and recorded 65 points with 32 goals during the regular season, adding four goals and three assists in the first round against Vegas. Johnston will be shifted on both the first and second lines depending on the matchup by coach Peter DeBoer and is combined with regular season points leader Jason Robertson for extra offense. Robertson is in his fourth NHL season and followed up his 2022–23 109-point campaign with 80 points this year, leading the next closest player on his time in production by 13. These young guns join veteran Dallas Stars Joe Pavelski and Jamie Benn to form a two-way forward core that, in theory, scores in waves.

The Avalanche, meanwhile, seem to have found depth of their own. It’s common knowledge what superstars Cale Makar and Nathan MacKinnon will provide in the playoffs, and this year has been no exception. What The Avalanche lacked in last season, but very much mirrors their Stanley Cup Championship run in 2021-2022, is depth scoring. Valeri Nichuskin and Arturri Lehkonen led the first round in goals scored and generally dominated. More surprising was the performance of playoff-debutant Casey Mittelstadt and long-time veteran Zach Parise. The two combined for eight points on a second line with Lehkonen that produced consistently dominant shifts that put Winnipeg out of the series. There are too many members of the Avalanche who had a great first round to chronicle here; all four forward lines produced multiple goals and overmatched their opponent in a true gentleman’s sweep of Winnipeg.

Dallas has a gritty, deep team that can get clutch goals throughout their lineup. Colorado has four of the league’s most elite playoff performers and complements them with four lines of production that overwhelm opponents in waves. How do you compare the two? It’s easier than you might think. Dallas was held to just 16 goals in a seven-game series, winning most games by a single goal. The Avalanche exploded for 28 goals in just five games—more than double with two games of rest.

Advantage: Decisively Avalanche.

Val Nichushkin keeps his goal streak going #GoAvsGo | #ALLIN pic.twitter.com/VSAs3TIFnf

— x – Colorado Avalanche (@Avalanche) May 1, 2024

Defense

Dallas Stars fans will always secretly dread the memory of their club selecting Miro Heiskanen one slot ahead of Cale Makar. Heiskanen is easily the Stars best defender, being weighed down by aging Ryan Sutur and undisciplined rookie Thomas Harley for support. The Dallas defense only allowed 14 goals against in their first seven post-season games, which is a testament to the backchecking of their forwards.

The Colorado Avalanche have a defensive core that creates more goal-scoring chances than any other team in the playoffs by a wide margin. Cale Makar is the best defenseman in hockey, and his D partner, Devon Toews, is consistently among the best shutdown defensemen in the league. If you discount the historically bad goaltending performance in Game 1, the Avalanche defense was excellent through five games.

Comparing the high-danger chances against that each team has allowed thus far in the playoffs, Dallas has allowed only 49, while Colorado has allowed one more at 50. Dallas took seven games to put the Golden Knights away, despite Vegas allowing a league-worst 79 high-danger chances to the Stars.

Advantage: Avalanche.

CALE MAKARRRRR pic.twitter.com/qcZ2wu3L9M

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) April 28, 2024

Goaltending

The story of round one for The Colorado Avalanche was looking likely to be how Alexandar Georgiev‘s struggles in net cost them the series. Then everything changed in game two. The four consecutive wins by the Avalanche to close out the Jets saw Georgiev rebound in a fantastic manner. He was not an above-average goalie by the numbers, and that’s important to remember, but he did become an average one. Georgiev finished the first round with an 0.897 save percentage, which is good enough for his team to win.

Meanwhile, Jake Oettinger had his worst season as a starter for the Dallas Stars but came into the playoffs as a different goalie. He turned a season 0.913 save percentage into a playoff 0.925 save percentage. If this is his worst, teams should be terrified of what his best could be. Oettinger is a true elite, No. 1 in net.

The best metric to compare goalies by is Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA), which determines the number of goals a goalie saved that the average goalie could not. Georgiev ended round one with -1.65 GSAA, which is not great, but if you give him the benefit of the doubt and remove his Game 1 tire fire of a performance, his GSAA becomes 1.44 and his save percentage rounds to 0.944, which is truly elite. Oettinger, on the other hand, has been a rock of consistency; his 3.62 GSAA and 0.943 save percentage need no goal-post moving or adjustment.

Advantage: Dallas Stars

Jake Oettinger has been locked in crunch time. @DallasStars | #TexasHockey | #StanleyCup pic.twitter.com/hSCjL1pTD2

— NHL Network (@NHLNetwork) May 4, 2024

Conclusion

With Dallas bosting home ice, they have the chance to stay home and maximize the two rest days they have between a brutal seven-game slugfest with Vegas and the steamrolling power of Colorado coming to town. The Avalanche are coming off a full seven days rest when the puck drops Tuesday evening, and the first round saw Colorado find their form and dominate.

Colorado has been an offensive freight train, scoring more goals per game than any other team in the playoffs. Dallas has struggled to find the back of the net, instead relying on elite goaltending with defensive-minded forwards.

Many predict this series will go the distance as the two best teams remaining in the playoffs beat each other into submission. We disagree. The Colorado Avalanche are a force to be reckoned with and should be considered favorites at this juncture to win the Stanley Cup. Elite stars who have proven track records in the post-season only exist on one side of the match card. Elite defense exists on one side of the match card. This is a series of Jake Oettinger trying to steal games for a team that is not nearly as good as the opposition, and we all saw how that went for Connor Hellebuyck.

The consensus is building that the winner of this series is the favorite for the Stanley Cup, but is Dallas actually a contender? They won the Central Division on the strength of a 52-21-9 record, but Winnipeg boasted just as many wins at 52-24-6. Colorado finished the regular season 50-25-7 but have only lost once in the post-season to Dallas’s three losses, which overtakes the gap in record. There is no point awarded for losing overtime games, which is the sole reason Dallas won the Central Division. Their jaw might be made of glass in this matchup of Force of Nature vs. Ball of Gas.