NFL Week 9: Picks and preview

STREAMING: PRIME VIDEO            LINE: Philadelphia -14

The Eagles had it all going against the Steelers last week, and while part of that was due to the Steelers just not being very good, Philly was extremely impressive in all phases. What should be really terrifying for the rest of the NFC is Jalen Hurts’ performance. Two of his four touchdown passes were absolutely perfect downfield shots to A.J. Brown. If he’s hitting those with regularity, how do you defend that team? Houston fought hard against the Titans but – stop me if you’ve heard this one before – Derrick Henry singlehandedly destroyed them. Henry went over 200 yards rushing and had two touchdowns for the *fourth straight* time against the Texans, who absolutely have the look of a team that will be welcoming C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young into the fold on April 27, 2023. What else is there to say?

Look smart to your friends:

-Hurts has won 10 consecutive starts, which is the longest-ever streak by an Eagles quarterback. A win would also get Philly to 8-0 for the first time in franchise history.

-Davis Mills isn’t the guy of the future for Houston, but in nine career home starts, he has 17 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions, and a 104.7 passer rating.

The pick: Eagles 30 Texans 20

TV: FOX            LINE: Los Angeles -3.5

Los Angeles got a chance to rest up and regroup, and while it’s fun to point out that the Chargers seem like the most cursed franchise in the league, they’ve weathered some early storms and positioned themselves to contend the rest of the way in the AFC. Hopefully, Brandon Staley used the time away to gin up some fixes for a defense that ranks 30^th in the league in points allowed. The Falcons survived Week 8’s wildest game with a win and are currently kings of the NFC South with a 4-4 record. Atlanta should have won, then should have lost, then should have lost again, then finally won. I’m not going to sit here and lie and say that the Falcons are any good; it’s glaringly obvious that they have some major flaws and just dealt suspended receiver Calvin Ridley to Jacksonville. Still, after this game, they get the Panthers, Bears, Commanders and Steelers, and then a late bye week. They could absolutely go 4-0 through that stretch. The problem will be finding another win after that.

Look smart to your friends:

-Austin Ekeler continues to be a force; he leads the Chargers in rushing yards as well as receptions and is just the third running back ever with 50+ catches through the first 7 games of the season.

-Kyle Pitts and Drake London are the big skill position names for the Falcons, but Damiere Byrd is bidding for his third-straight game with a touchdown reception.

The pick: Chargers 30 Falcons 27

TV: CBS            LINE: Miami -5

Any evaluation of Miami is fairly simple: When Tua Tagovailoa is running the offense, they’re a dangerous, dynamic team, plenty good enough on that side of the ball to overcome mistakes or turn deficits into lead. When he doesn’t, they’re mediocre. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle look unstoppable when Tagovailoa is throwing them the ball, and as long as that’s the case, Miami will be a tough, dangerous out, no matter who they’re playing, particularly now that they added Bradley Chubb to a defense that needed a star up front. Chicago was close to the Cowboys for a good while, before a few third-quarter touchdowns by Dallas put the game out of reach. Justin Fields’ passing line again looked pretty good, and the Bears got him a big, physical target in a trade for Chase Claypool, but it’s also clear that the Bears are still in the nascent stages of figuring out what to do to bring out the best in Fields. Chicago can beat bad and even average teams without a huge passing game. The problem for them is there aren’t many of those left on the schedule.

Look smart to your friends:

-Hill is one of two players in NFL history with 150+ receiving yards in four of his team’s first eight games of the season. The only other player with this distinction was Roy Green in 1984, something I’m sure you knew.

-If the Bears rush for 225+ yards as a team, they’ll become just the second team in the Super Bowl era, along with the 1976 Steelers, to accomplish that feat in four straight games.

The pick: Dolphins 27 Bears 23

TV: FOX            LINE: Cincinnati -7.5

Not too many more Panther-like endings to a game than what Carolina endured last week against Atlanta. There was the thrill of near-certain victory after an improbable 62-yard D.J. Moore touchdown catch, then there was Moore’s unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for taking off his helmet in celebration, then there was a missed extra point, overtime, a missed field goal, and finally, a loss. Oh wait, you wanted analysis of this team? Doesn’t that say it all right there? Cincinnati delivered a no-show performance against the Browns, particularly in the second half. The Bengals’ offense took forever to get going; Ja’Marr Chase’s absence was clearly felt, and Cincy is going to have to figure out ways to scheme Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins open without Chase’s mere presence creating space. Joe Burrow and company were rolling before they hit a brick wall in Cleveland. Carolina would seem like a chance for an easy win, but the Panthers have been frisky.

Look smart to your friends:

-D’Onta Foreman hasn’t been the man in the Carolina backfield for very long, but he’s already one of just three running backs this season (Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard) with 115+ rushing yards and 3+ rushing touchdowns in a single game.

-Vonn Bell figures to have a busy game; in two of his last three outings against Carolina, he’s posted 7+ tackles, a tackle for loss and a pass defensed.

The pick: Bengals 31 Panthers 17

TV: FOX            LINE: Green Bay -4

The Packers just feel like a team with no answers. I have more confidence in Tom Brady and the Bucs figuring things out at this point. Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have time to throw, and when he does, there isn’t a target available that he trusts. Green Bay ran the ball well against Buffalo, but the problem was they were running it down 17 points. That’s supposed to be Rodgers time. It very much is not, at least not anymore. Not a very good return on a nine-figure investment. Well, the Lions did it to me yet again. They jumped out to big leads on Miami and gave them back every time, and lost a close one, largely because they scored precisely zero points in the second half after putting up 27 in the first 30 minutes. I want to love the Lions. I want them to be good. They do not want to love me back, nor do they want to be good. They also traded T.J. Hockenson to Minnesota, which cuts into their fun factor for the rest of this year, but probably helps in the long run.

Look smart to your friends:

-As ugly as the loss to Buffalo was, Aaron Jones, did put up solid numbers, rushing for a season-high 143 on his way to 157 scrimmage yards. Not much consolation for Packers fans, I know.

-Jamaal Williams became the fourth player since 2000 (James Conner, Todd Gurley, Priest Holmes) with 2+ rushing touchdowns in four of his team’s first seven games of the season. He also leads the NFC with 8 rushing touchdowns this year.

The pick: Lions 28 Packers 24

TV: CBS            LINE: New England -5.5

Sam Ehlinger’s starting debut was fine, I suppose. Thing of it is, big-time quarterbacks put away games where they have a two-possession lead in the fourth quarter. Ehlinger did no such thing against the Commanders, though a Michael Pittman Jr. drop late in the game short-circuited what would have been a plausible game-winning drive. Ehlinger has just over half a year to show what he can do; that’s not a ton of time, but you get the sense that owner Jim Irsay doesn’t much care for patience. New England won a rock fight of sorts with the Jets, and while the win was impressive on account of it happening on the road, I didn’t come away from it feeling like the Pats are contenders; if anything, they were opportunistic and took advantage of Zach Wilson’s sloppy, three-interception day. The AFC is loaded, particularly at the top, and New England looks like a team that will always play tough but is a clear step or three behind the conference’s best.

Look smart to your friends:

-Alec Pierce hasn’t gotten the headlines of other rookie receivers in this class, but he’s already posted four games with 60+ receiving yards, tied for the most among rookies.

-New England hasn’t had a true No. 1 wide receiver in some time, but Jakobi Meyers is heating up, with a touchdown reception in three of his last four games.

The pick: Patriots 24 Colts 13

TV: CBS            LINE: Buffalo -12.5

You won’t find too many point spreads more disrespectful than this one. The Jets are just one behind the Bills in the win column, yet Buffalo is a nearly a two-touchdown favorite as the road team. Perhaps Vegas was impressed by the Bills looking more like a team playing with its food than anything against Green Bay. At no point in time were the Bills in danger against Aaron Rodgers. And but for a little sloppiness from Josh Allen, the score could have been much worse. Speaking of that point spread, perhaps Zach Wilson’s play against the Patriots is why the oddsmakers have so little faith in the Jets. Wilson was bad against the Patriots, putting up big yardage totals and 2 touchdowns, but also throwing 3 interceptions. There’s still much to like about New York; the defensive line can take over games, there are some intriguing skill players, and Robert Saleh’s efforts to change the culture seem like they’re working. That won’t matter if Wilson can’t start delivering.

Look smart to your friends:

-From the “stats that won’t surprise you” department, Stefon Diggs is tied for the NFL lead with seven touchdown catches, and is second in the league with 764 receiving yards.

-Sauce Gardner will likely draw the Diggs assignment in this game, and he has a pass defensed in 7 of 8 games this year, and is tied for the NFL lead with 12 passes defensed overall.

The pick: Bills 34 Jets 23

TV: FOX            LINE: Minnesota -3.5

Minnesota continues to fly quietly under the radar, churning out wins and all but putting away the NFC North with a 6-1 start. They did enough to put away the Cardinals last week, despite a game effort by Arizona, and other than an ugly performance in Philadelphia, have not really stumbled. I don’t buy their defense, which is an average group overall, but the offense is doing enough despite merely adequate work from Kirk Cousins. Will newly-acquired T.J. Hockenson put this team over the top? It’s certainly an intriguing move, at the bare minimum. Anyone who downplays leadership, intangibles, and a certain je ne sais quoi that most good-to-great quarterbacks have would be hard-pressed to explain Taylor Heinicke’s success. He’s now won two straight in relief of an injured Carson Wentz, and while his numbers in both games aren’t eye-popping, it’s obvious that he’s imbued his teammates with that most important quality – belief. Washington just looks different with Heinicke out there, and while I understand that there might be – probably is – a shelf life for what he’s doing, it’s working right now, and that’s all that matters.

Look smart to your friends:

-Za’Darius Smith has been a great pickup for Minnesota, racking up 3 sacks and 4 tackles for loss, plus a pass defensed last week. It was his fourth career game with 3+ sacks.

-Jonathan Allen will be key to keeping Dalvin Cook in check. Allen ranks second among all defensive linemen with 9 tackles for loss this season.

The pick: Vikings 23 Commanders 20

TV: CBS            LINE: Las Vegas -1.5

I thought going into last week that maybe, just maybe, the Raiders were getting their act together. That they might roll over the Saints, and embark on a winning streak that would vault them into serious playoff contention. That, uh, did not happen. Las Vegas’ dud of a performance was one of the worst in the league by any team this season, and leaves the Raiders 2-5 and desperate. Only the Steelers, Jaguars and Texans enter the week with worse records among AFC teams. Hey, speaking of the Jaguars, they continue to find new ways to disappoint, checking in at a wretched 2-6 on the season, and having just lost to – gasp! – Russell Wilson and Denver. Jacksonville made a bold trade to acquire Calvin Ridley, and assuming he gets reinstated from his indefinite suspension, he should provide Trevor Lawrence with a true No. 1 receiver. The Chiefs, Ravens, Titans, Cowboys and Jets all loom on the schedule. So, stop me if you’ve heard this one before, it appears as if the Jaguars have blown their chance at a good season.

Look smart to your friends:

-Hmmm, find something nice to say about a Raiders player…hmmm. Linebacker Divine Deablo leads the NFL with 10.4 tackles per game. Is that good enough?

-The Jags are disappointing, to be sure, but Travis Etienne continues to come into his own. He rushed for a career-high 156 yards and got his second touchdown of the season last week. His 571 rushing yards are the fourth-most by a Jaguars player in their first 8 career games.

The pick: Jaguars 26 Raiders 20

TV: FOX            LINE: Arizona -2

Is there a better story in the NFL than Geno Smith? No, there is not. Smith is proving doubters and naysayers wrong, leading the NFL in completion percentage at 72.7 and the NFC in touchdown passes, with 13. And what Smith is doing both isn’t fluky, and isn’t a byproduct of an ultra-favorable system. He and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron are firing on all cylinders, Smith is making his reads swiftly, and delivering strikes. Seattle’s vast offensive line improvement is helping, too. If the Seahawks are a well-oiled offensive machine, the Cardinals are the opposite of that. Everything Arizona does seems disjointed and disconnected, and even when things are working they’re not really “working,” something that the eye test makes evident. Arizona is capable of beating anyone or losing to anyone, which I suppose you can say about any NFL team but no group is more confounding to watch on a series-to-series basis.

Look smart to your friends:

-Jordyn Brooks will probably be busy in this game. The linebacker ranks fifth in the NFL with 79 tackles, and had 20 tackles when the Seahawks last played the Cardinals in Arizona.

-DeAndre Hopkins ranks first in the NFL in catches (22), receiving yards (262) and first down + touchdown receptions (13) since returning to action.

The pick: Seahawks 30 Cardinals 20

TV: CBS            LINE: Tampa Bay -3

Is it time for the Rams to panic? I guess they’re only 1.5 games out of first place, and there’s half a season left but…it feels like it’s time to panic. Los Angeles had 223 yards of offense, but hey, at least Matthew Stafford finally went a game without throwing an interception. There’s just nothing happening for Sean McVay’s offense, and the defense had no answers for Christian McCaffrey. The Rams definitely aren’t as good as the 49ers, and certainly don’t look better than the Seahawks. As I said, time to panic. Stop me if you’ve heard this before; the Bucs never got a running game going, Tom Brady was harassed by the opposing pass rush, and Tampa Bay couldn’t get stops when they needed to against Baltimore. At 3-5, Tampa is somehow right in the thick of things in what looks for all the world like the worst division in the NFL. At some point, though, saying that they still have time and that Brady can never be fully counted out will give way to acknowledging that it just isn’t happening for this team.

Look smart to your friends:

-Aaron Donald is great no matter where he’s playing, but he’s been dominant on the road of late, posting 5.5 sacks, 11 tackles for loss and 2 forced fumbles in his last six road starts.

-Given the way things have been going lately, it might take him three quarters to get there, but with 164 passing yards, Brady will become the first player in league history with 100,000 career passing yards.

The pick: Buccaneers 24 Rams 17

TV: NBC            LINE: Kansas City -12.5

Death, taxes, and Derrick Henry single-handedly laying waste to the Houston Texans. It was the same old story for Henry against Houston. He racked up his fourth-straight game with at least 200 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Texans. That level of dominance allowed Malik Willis to get by despite throwing for just 55 yards on 10 attempts in his first NFL start. If Willis has to go again, he’ll find that there’s just a bit more onus on him when the opponent is the Chiefs. Kansas City got to rest up last week after hammering San Francisco. The Chiefs added Kadarius Toney via trade, in one of those “if it works, it’s going to be borderline unfair” deals. Toney is a huge wild card, but he’s apparently healthy now after major hamstring issues, which would mean that Kansas City is pairing one of the league’s most intriguing young talents with one of its two best quarterbacks. Pretty good deal, wouldn’t you say?

Look smart to your friends:

-Henry tends to treat Kansas City like he does everyone else; in five career games against the Chiefs, he has 603 scrimmage yards and 6 rushing touchdowns.

-Patrick Mahomes’ 33 career games with 300+ passing yards surpassed Dan Marino for the most ever by a player in his first six seasons.

The pick: Chiefs 34 Titans 24

TV: ESPN            LINE: Baltimore -2.5

Let’s give the Ravens a big ol’ hand. Their fans probably thought the stage was set for yet another fourth-quarter collapse, but instead of relinquishing a 17-10 advantage through three, Baltimore built on it, and put away Tom Brady and the Bucs to the tune of 27-22. The win, coupled with the news that the Bengals won’t have Ja’Marr Chase for 4-6 weeks because of a hip injury, puts Baltimore squarely in the driver’s seat in the AFC North. New Orleans delivered one of the more unexpected performances of Week 8, silencing the Raiders in a 24-0 rout, and keeping within a game of the division lead in the less-than-impressive NFC South. The Saints came into the game with the league’s 31^st-ranked scoring defense, yet the Raiders couldn’t even crack 200 yards of offense, and Josh Jacobs, who was so good for the previous three games, never affected the game. Andy Dalton played clean football, too, which was probably a relief after his disaster outing against the Cardinals in Week 7.

Look smart to your friends:

-Jackson’s passing has been spotty at times this year, particularly when he isn’t targeting Mark Andrews, but he needs just 14 rushing yards to surpass Steve Young (4,239) for fifth-most ever by a quarterback.

-Dalton is certainly familiar with the Ravens; he has 2+ touchdown passes in five of his last six games against Baltimore, and his 4,507 passing yards against the Ravens are the most he’s produced against any opponent.

The pick: Ravens 27 Saints 20