MLB best bets: Expert picks, odds, predictions for Tuesday 5/7

Diamondbacks vs. Reds

Tuesday, May 7, 6:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Frankie Montas Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+122 | Play to +110, FanDuel)

By Tony Sartori

Cincinnati hands the ball to right-hander Frankie Montas, who is returning from a forearm injury.

Given that it's still early in the season and Montas will likely be on a pitch count, I immediately like the under on his strikeout prop.

The right-hander has also struggled in the strikeout department, ranking in the 19th percentile of qualified pitchers in whiff rate and the 14th percentile in strikeout rate. Combine that with his likely short outing, and Montas should stay under 3.5 strikeouts.

Montas got shelled in his last start against Arizona, surrendering nine runs on six hits while only recording one punchout. Meanwhile, the Snakes are among the most strikeout-avoidant teams in baseball, ranking third in strikeout rate.

Pick: Frankie Montas Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+122 | Play to +110)

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Astros vs. Yankees

Tuesday, May 7, 7:05 p.m. ET, TBS
Astros ML (+100 | Play to -115, Bet365)

By D.J. James

Luis Gil has been a great addition to the New York Yankees rotation, but on Tuesday, he might have his hands full with the competition as Justin Verlander goes for the Houston Astros.

Upon his return from injury, Verlander has looked more like himself. His groundball rate is elite, and he should see his walk rate decrease over time.

Gil has encouraging 2024 peripherals but also has issues keeping the ball on the ground and issuing walks, walking over 15% of batters faced.

Ultimately, there isn't a big discrepancy between these two starters.

Shockingly, for as weak as they have been overall, the Astros have a 107 wRC+ and sub-18% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season.

The Yankees strike out and walk more against righties than the Astros, owning 119 wRC+.

However, the Yankees' expected FIP in relief is 4.20, while the Astros' is 4.12.

Overall, these two teams do not have enough differences to justify Verlander being an underdog here. The Yankees can hit righties, and the Astros can, too.

So, I'll back the 'Stros as short-road dogs, playing them down to a slight favorite.

Pick: Astros ML (+100 | Play to -115)

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