2024 Wells Fargo championship best bets, expert picks

2024 Wells Fargo Championship Best Bets & Expert Picks

Spencer Aguiar: Fade Shane Lowry

That is a generic answer that gives us a broad spectrum to dive into for book-specific matchups. However, my model believes that Shane Lowry is grading as one of the most overpriced options on the board because of his recent victory at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans with Rory McIlroy.

As someone who is always cautious when markets overreact to a single performance, I see an additional red flag in this situation. Shane Lowry's victory was undeniably impressive, but it was largely a result of Rory McIlroy's stunning Sunday performance, which propelled their team across the finish line.

Lowry has not landed in the top 20 of this tournament in five career attempts, and his Expected Strokes Gained Total output which ranks 63rd out of 69 players couldn't surpass the quality returns he did possess when faced with long and challenging tracks.

My favorite route to take is backing Ashkay Bhatia if you have access to that wager at your shop, but I found most fade routes worth the investment.

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Matt Gannon: Cameron Young Top 20 +100 (DraftKings)

What do we know about Cameron Young? He is one of the best total drivers on The PGA Tour and has done everything but win a golf tournament in his very short career.

He is labeled a “loser” by the golf betting community because he gets himself in position so often but never comes through. The funny thing about that label is that you simply do not get that label if you are not an elite golfer who gets himself into the mix so often. No one is calling Nick Hardy a loser who is from the same class as Young and has accomplished a fraction of what Young has.

Either way, Young is an elite talent but he truly does struggle under the gun on Sundays. We are getting plus money on a top 20 for him in a limited field on a golf course that suits him perfectly. His driver, which ranks 11th in Total Driving this season, will set him apart, and even if he is not clicking elsewhere, he should have enough in the tank to finish in the top 20.

Tony Sartori: Adam Scott Top 10 +450 (FanDuel)

Adam Scott hasn’t been winning events, but he has been competing and is capable of scoring near the top of this field. He has gained total strokes in eight of his past nine PGA Tour events, finishing inside the top 10 twice in that span.

Scott has been bombing off the tee, gaining distance on the field in each of his past seven tournaments and was most recently fourth in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee this past weekend in Dallas at the Byron Nelson. With that said, he can also scramble well when needed, given that he ranks above the Tour average in that category this season.

Therefore, it is not surprising that Scott has thrived at this venue with multiple top-10 finishes, including last year’s tie for fifth. At +450, it is worth backing him to do so once again this week.

2024 Wells Fargo Championship Expert Picks, Fades

Favorites We’re Backing

• Aguiar: Wyndham Clark +1800
• Gannon: Patrick Cantlay +2000
• Sartori: Patrick Cantlay +2000

Mid-Tier Golfer to Back

• Aguiar: Akshay Bhatia in matchups
• Gannon: Will Zalatoris +4000
• Sartori: Akshay Bhatia +5000

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Best Long Shot

• Aguiar: Matthieu Pavon 120-1
• Gannon: Cameron Davis 125-1
• Sartori: Taylor Moore 110-1

Biggest Bust

• Aguiar: Shane Lowry +5500
• Gannon: Wyndham Clark +1800
• Sartori: Wyndham Clark +1800

Contrarian Player To Target

• Aguiar: Patrick Cantlay +1700
• Gannon: Viktor Hovland +3200
• Sartori: Justin Thomas +3000

Your Betting Strategy for the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship

Aguiar: Tree-lined parklands and undulating fairways present a strategic yet aggressive blueprint since long hitters will receive a boost when diving into the difficulty of locating the short grass off the tee.

My model has been a big believer that lengthy courses with limited accuracy tend to further benefit quality drivers of the ball who have distance since everyone will be missing fairways. We saw that come to fruition when diving into the 17-yard increase here at Quail Hollow in driving distance versus a random track.

Add that to the secondary part of the formula that includes over a 13% increase in projected approaches from beyond 175 yards, and Quail Hollow will test players for four days.

Gannon: Total driving is the key to success around Quail Hollow for multiple reasons. First, the course is longer than most PGA Tour venues at over 7,500 yards, so clearly being longer off the tee is better given that the average driving distance here was 12.5 yards longer than an average PGA Tour course in 2023.

From there, being long and straight will give golfers a massive head start on the field. Players who are farther back in the fairway or are off line will have an extremely difficult time gaining strokes on approach compared to the elite drivers.

The best total drivers will have a ton of middle irons from the short grass while the poor drivers will be playing from the rough with long irons. That is a recipe for failure for the poor drivers of the golf ball. They simply will not be able to gain enough strokes in the other categories if they are driving the ball poorly. Sort by Total Driving to find the key names ahead of this week's Wells Fargo Championship.

Sartori: Quail Hollow Club is a bomber’s course. This is a difficult, long track that rewards heavy hitters, which is why it is not surprising that this is Rory McIlroy’s most successful venue.

24.1% of approach shots come from the 175-200 yard range (the largest distribution among the 25-yard range groups), so good mid-to-long iron players will also be rewarded here. Finally, due to the difficulty and length, golfers must also scramble when needed.

Last season, four of the top-six finishers here ranked in the top six among the field in scrambling, the only statistic in which such a trend occurred.